气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A pan-South-America assessment of avoided exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation by limiting to 1.5 C warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab50a2
	A pan-South-America assessment of avoided exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation by limiting to 1.5 C warming
	Li S.; Otto F.E.L.; Harrington L.J.; Sparrow S.N.; Wallom D.C.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:5
英文摘要	This study investigates the future changes in dangerous extreme precipitation event in South America, using the multi-model ensemble simulations from the HAPPI experiments. The risks of dangerous extreme precipitation events occurrence, and changes in area and population exposure are quantified. Our results show that the likelihood of dangerous extreme precipitation increases in large parts of South America under future warming; changes in extreme precipitation are nonlinear with increasing global mean temperatures; and exposure plays a minor role compared to hazard. In all the models, limiting warming to 1.5 C as opposed to 2 C shows a general reduction in both area and population exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation throughout South America. The southeast region of South America exhibited the highest multi-model median percentage of avoided area exposure at 13.3%, while the southwest region shows the lowest percentage at 3.1%. Under all shared socioeconomic pathways, South America Monsoon region and southern South America region yielded the highest multi-model median percentage of avoided population exposure (>10%). The strong spatial heterogeneity in projected changes in all the models highlights the importance of considering location-specific information when designing adaptation measures and investing in disaster preparedness. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Disaster prevention; Disaster preparedness; Extreme precipitation; Extreme precipitation events; Global-mean temperature; Multi-model ensemble; Southern south america; Spatial heterogeneity; Specific information; Precipitation (meteorology); adaptive management; disaster management; extreme event; global warming; heterogeneity; monsoon; precipitation assessment; socioeconomic status; spatial variation; South America
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154038
作者单位	Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; Oxford E-Research Center. Keble Rd, Oxford, OX1 3QG, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li S.,Otto F.E.L.,Harrington L.J.,et al. A pan-South-America assessment of avoided exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation by limiting to 1.5 C warming[J],2020,15(5).
APA	Li S.,Otto F.E.L.,Harrington L.J.,Sparrow S.N.,&Wallom D.C.H..(2020).A pan-South-America assessment of avoided exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation by limiting to 1.5 C warming.Environmental Research Letters,15(5).
MLA	Li S.,et al."A pan-South-America assessment of avoided exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation by limiting to 1.5 C warming".Environmental Research Letters 15.5(2020).