气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increased risk of malaria transmission with warming temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7520
	Increased risk of malaria transmission with warming temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands
	Endo N.; Eltahir E.A.B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:5
英文摘要	The heavily populated highlands of Ethiopia are currently at low risk for malaria transmission, but global warming may change the risk level significantly. The inhabitants of the Ethiopian Highlands are highly vulnerable to this potential hazard due to their lack of immunity. Here, we identify hotspots within the Highlands where projected warming towards the end of the 21st century will increase the risk of malaria transmission significantly. Based on projected temperature changes, we conclude that about a third of the region's population and roughly 14% of its land area will become at high risk for malaria transmission within a century under the high-emissions-no-mitigation baseline scenario for future climate change. Our analysis combines dynamically down-scaled regional climate projections, high resolution satellite observations of temperature, and a village-scale malaria transmission model that was developed based on climatic, environmental, entomological, and medical data collected by our group in comprehensive multi-year field surveys of villages in this region. The projected impacts of global warming on malaria transmission in Africa have been controversial. We propose a framework that reconciles seemingly contradictory conclusions, and informs strategies for climate adaptation not only over the Ethiopian Highlands but broadly over Africa, where more than 90% of malaria deaths occur every year. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Diseases; Global warming; Risk perception; Rural areas; Field surveys; Future climate; High resolution satellites; Malaria transmission; Medical data; Potential hazards; Regional climate projections; Temperature changes; Transmissions; disease transmission; entomology; global warming; health risk; malaria; numerical model; regional climate; satellite data; Ethiopian Highlands
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154030
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Endo N.,Eltahir E.A.B.. Increased risk of malaria transmission with warming temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands[J],2020,15(5).
APA	Endo N.,&Eltahir E.A.B..(2020).Increased risk of malaria transmission with warming temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands.Environmental Research Letters,15(5).
MLA	Endo N.,et al."Increased risk of malaria transmission with warming temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands".Environmental Research Letters 15.5(2020).