气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab76dd
	Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe
	Jézéquel A.; Bevacqua E.; D'Andrea F.; Thao S.; Vautard R.; Vrac M.; Yiou P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:6
英文摘要	The influence of anthropogenic climate change on both mean and extremely hot temperatures in Europe has been demonstrated in a number of studies. There is a growing consensus that high temperature extremes have increased more rapidly than the regional mean in central Europe, while the difference between extreme and mean trends is not significant in other European regions. However, it is less clear how to quantify the changes in different processes leading to heat extremes. Extremely hot temperatures are associated to a large extent with specific types of atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate how the temperature associated with atmospheric patterns leading to extremely hot days in the present could evolve in the future. We propose a methodology to calculate conditional trends tailored to the circulation patterns of specific days by computing the evolution of the temperature for days with a similar circulation to the day of interest. We also introduce the concept of residual trends, which compare the conditional trends to regional mean temperature trends. We compute these trends for two case studies of the hottest days recorded in two different European regions (corresponding to the heat-waves of summer 2003 and 2010). We use the NCEP reanalysis dataset, an ensemble of CMIP5 models, and a large ensemble of a single coupled model (CESM), in order to account for different sources of uncertainty. We also evaluate how bias correction of climate simulations influences the results. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	attribution; climate change; dynamics; extreme events; thermodynamics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Large dataset; Anthropogenic climate changes; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric pattern; Circulation patterns; Climate simulation; High temperature; Mean temperature; Sources of uncertainty; Atmospheric temperature; air temperature; atmospheric circulation; climate change; climate modeling; high temperature; trend analysis; Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154009
作者单位	LMD/IPSL, ENS, PSL Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Paris, France; Ecole des Ponts, Marne-la-Valleé, France; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL and U Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jézéquel A.,Bevacqua E.,D'Andrea F.,et al. Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe[J],2020,15(6).
APA	Jézéquel A..,Bevacqua E..,D'Andrea F..,Thao S..,Vautard R..,...&Yiou P..(2020).Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe.Environmental Research Letters,15(6).
MLA	Jézéquel A.,et al."Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe".Environmental Research Letters 15.6(2020).