气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab87d2
	Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems
	Lledó L.; Cionni I.; Torralba V.; Bretonniere P.-A.; Samsó M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:7
英文摘要	Seasonal mean atmospheric circulation in Europe can vary substantially from year to year. This diversity of conditions impacts many socioeconomic sectors. Teleconnection indices can be used to characterize this seasonal variability, while seasonal forecasts of those indices offer the opportunity to take adaptation actions a few months in advance. For instance, the North Atlantic Oscillation has proven useful as a proxy for atmospheric effects in several sectors, and dynamical forecasts of its evolution in winter have been shown skillful. However the NAO only characterizes part of this seasonal circulation anomalies, and other teleconnections such as the East Atlantic, the East Atlantic Western Russia or the Scandinavian Pattern also play an important role in shaping atmospheric conditions in the continent throughout the year. This paper explores the quality of seasonal forecasts of these four teleconnection indices for the four seasons of the year, derived from five different seasonal prediction systems. We find that several teleconnection indices can be skillfully predicted in advance in winter, spring and summer. We also show that there is no single prediction system that performs better than the others for all seasons and teleconnections, and that a multi-system approach produces results that are as good as the best of the systems. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate variability; Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections; multi-system predictions; seasonal prediction; teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric conditions; Atmospheric effects; Circulation anomalies; North Atlantic oscillations; Seasonal prediction; Seasonal variability; Teleconnection indices; Forecasting; air-sea interaction; atmospheric circulation; North Atlantic Oscillation; seasonal variation; teleconnection; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (East); Europe; Russian Federation; Scandinavia
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153948
作者单位	Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, L'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA), Roma, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lledó L.,Cionni I.,Torralba V.,et al. Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems[J],2020,15(7).
APA	Lledó L.,Cionni I.,Torralba V.,Bretonniere P.-A.,&Samsó M..(2020).Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems.Environmental Research Letters,15(7).
MLA	Lledó L.,et al."Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems".Environmental Research Letters 15.7(2020).