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| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab8b13 |
| Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts | |
| Sutanto S.J.; Wetterhall F.; Van Lanen H.A.J. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 17489318 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:8 |
| 英文摘要 | One of the most effective strategies to reduce the impacts of drought is by issuing a timely and targeted warning from month to seasons ahead to end users. Yet to accurately forecast the drought hazard on a sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale remains a challenge, and usually, meteorological drought is forecasted instead of hydrological drought, although the latter is more relevant for several impacted sectors. Therefore, we evaluate the hydro-meteorological drought forecast skill for the pan-European region using categorical drought classification method. The results show that the hydrological drought forecasts outperform the meteorological drought forecasts. Hydrological drought forecasts even show predictive power (area with perfect prediction > 50%) beyond two months ahead. Our study also concludes that dynamical forecasts, derived from seasonal forecasts, have higher predictability than ensemble streamflow predictions. The results suggest that further development of seasonal hydrological drought forecasting systems are beneficial, particularly important in the context of global warming, where drought hazard will become more frequent and severe in multiple regions in the world. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. |
| 英文关键词 | dynamical forecasts; ensemble streamflow prediction; hydrological drought; meteorological drought |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Drought; Global warming; Hazards; Drought classifications; Forecasting system; Hydrological droughts; Meteorological drought; Multiple regions; Predictive power; Seasonal forecasts; Streamflow prediction; Weather forecasting; drought; forecasting method; hydrological hazard; meteorology |
| 来源期刊 | Environmental Research Letters
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153908 |
| 作者单位 | Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Environmental Sciences Department, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park Reading, United Kingdom |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sutanto S.J.,Wetterhall F.,Van Lanen H.A.J.. Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts[J],2020,15(8). |
| APA | Sutanto S.J.,Wetterhall F.,&Van Lanen H.A.J..(2020).Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts.Environmental Research Letters,15(8). |
| MLA | Sutanto S.J.,et al."Hydrological drought forecasts outperform meteorological drought forecasts".Environmental Research Letters 15.8(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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