气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9141
	Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States
	Rohat G.; Monaghan A.; Hayden M.H.; Ryan S.J.; Charriere E.; Wilhelmi O.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:8
英文摘要	Understanding how climate change and demographic factors may shape future population exposure to viruses such as Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes is essential to improving public health preparedness. In this study, we combine projections of cumulative monthly Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with spatially explicit population projections for vulnerable demographic groups to explore future county-level population exposure across the conterminous United States. We employ a scenario matrix - combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) - to assess the full range of uncertainty in emissions, socioeconomic development, and demographic change. Human exposure is projected to increase under most scenarios, up to + 177% at the national scale in 2080 under SSP5∗RCP8.5 relative to a historical baseline. Projected exposure changes are predominantly driven by population changes in vulnerable demographic groups, although climate change is also important, particularly in the western region where future exposure would be about 30% lower under RCP2.6 compared to RCP8.5. The results emphasize the crucial role that socioeconomic and demographic change play in shaping future population vulnerability and exposure to Aedes-borne virus transmission risk in the United States, and underline the importance of including socioeconomic scenarios in projections of climate-related vector-borne disease impacts. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Aedes mosquitoes; Climate impacts; Representative Concentration Pathways; Scenarios; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; Vector-borne diseases; Vulnerability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Population dynamics; Population statistics; Risk perception; Transmissions; Uncertainty analysis; Viruses; Demographic changes; Demographic factors; Demographic groups; Population exposure; Public health preparedness; Socio-economic development; Spatially explicit; Vector-borne disease; Climate change; climate change; demography; future prospect; virus; vulnerability; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153874
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland; Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Research Computing, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Trauma, Health and Hazards Center, University of Colorado, Springs, Colorado, CO, United States; Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rohat G.,Monaghan A.,Hayden M.H.,et al. Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States[J],2020,15(8).
APA	Rohat G.,Monaghan A.,Hayden M.H.,Ryan S.J.,Charriere E.,&Wilhelmi O..(2020).Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States.Environmental Research Letters,15(8).
MLA	Rohat G.,et al."Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States".Environmental Research Letters 15.8(2020).