气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Will climate change make Chinese people more comfortable? A scenario analysis based on the weather preference index

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9965
	Will climate change make Chinese people more comfortable? A scenario analysis based on the weather preference index
	Fang Z.; Liu Z.; He C.; Tu M.; Zhao R.; Lu W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:8
英文摘要	Assessing the climate change impact (CCI) on weather conditions is important for addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development. This study used a weather preference index (WPI) as an indicator to evaluate the CCI on weather conditions in China under different scenarios from 2025 to 2100. First, we analyzed the change in the WPI in China from 1971 to 2013. Then, we estimated the trends in the WPI in China from 2025 to 2100 under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) based on global climate models. We found that China's weather conditions improved from 1971 to 2013, as the national average WPI increased from 1.34 to 1.59 with a change rate of 0.03 per decade (0.03/10 a). Under all climate change scenarios, the weather conditions in China will deteriorate. The change rates of the WPI will be -0.19/10 a ∼ - 0.01/10 a. The number of people experiencing deteriorated weather conditions will be 0.71 billion ∼ 1.22 billion, accounting for 53.28% ∼ 91.58% of the total population in China. We also found that the area of the regions with deteriorated weather conditions under all three climate change scenarios will be 2.34 million km2, accounting for 24.31% of China's total land area. At the same time, as the emissions concentrations increase from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5, the area of the regions with severely deteriorated weather conditions in China will increase from 0 to 3.27 million km2. Therefore, we suggest that China needs to implement effective measures to address climate change in the future and focus on the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in regions with deteriorated weather conditions. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change risk; scenario analysis; urban sustainability; weather conditions; weather preference index
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Adaptation to climate changes; Chinese people; Climate change impact; Climate change scenarios; Effective measures; Global climate model; Number of peoples; Scenario analysis; Climate change; climate change; climate conditions; climate effect; index method; nature-society relations; perception; scenario analysis; sustainable development; China
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153858
作者单位	Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fang Z.,Liu Z.,He C.,et al. Will climate change make Chinese people more comfortable? A scenario analysis based on the weather preference index[J],2020,15(8).
APA	Fang Z.,Liu Z.,He C.,Tu M.,Zhao R.,&Lu W..(2020).Will climate change make Chinese people more comfortable? A scenario analysis based on the weather preference index.Environmental Research Letters,15(8).
MLA	Fang Z.,et al."Will climate change make Chinese people more comfortable? A scenario analysis based on the weather preference index".Environmental Research Letters 15.8(2020).