气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89
	Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation
	Boé J.; Terray L.; Moine M.-P.; Valcke S.; Bellucci A.; Drijfhout S.; Haarsma R.; Lohmann K.; Putrasahan D.A.; Roberts C.; Roberts M.; Scoccimarro E.; Seddon J.; Senan R.; Wyser K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:8
英文摘要	Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951-2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Sea ice; Sea level; Surface waters; Systematic errors; Atmospheric circulation; Future climate projections; Internal variability; Large-scale circulation; Sea level pressure; Sea surface temperature (SST); Systematic modeling; Temperature trends; Climate models; atmospheric circulation; climate modeling; summer; warming
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153851
作者单位	CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), PO Box 201, De Bilt, 3730 AE, Netherlands; University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, United Kingdom; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Ocean in the Earth System Department, Bundesstraße 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany; European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Boé J.,Terray L.,Moine M.-P.,et al. Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation[J],2020,15(8).
APA	Boé J..,Terray L..,Moine M.-P..,Valcke S..,Bellucci A..,...&Wyser K..(2020).Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation.Environmental Research Letters,15(8).
MLA	Boé J.,et al."Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: Role of large-scale atmospheric circulation".Environmental Research Letters 15.8(2020).