气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Time-varying impact of climate on maize and wheat yields in France since 1900

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aba1be
	Time-varying impact of climate on maize and wheat yields in France since 1900
	Ceglar A.; Zampieri M.; Gonzalez-Reviriego N.; Ciais P.; Schauberger B.; Van Der Velde M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Climate services that can anticipate crop yields can potentially increase the resilience of food security in the face of climate change. These services are based on our understanding of how crop yield anomalies are related to climate anomalies, yet the share of global crop yield variability explained directly by climate factors is largely variable between regions. In Europe, France has been a major crop producer since the beginning of the 20th Century. Process based and statistical approaches to model crop yields driven by observed climate have proven highly challenging in France. This is especially due to a high regional diversity in climate but also due to environmental and agro-management factors. An additional level of uncertainty is introduced if these models are driven by seasonal-to-decadal surface climate predictions due to their low performances before the harvesting months of both wheat and maize in western Europe. On the other hand, large scale circulation patterns can possibly be better predicted than the regional surface climate, which offers the opportunity to rely on large scale circulation patterns as an alternative to local climate variables. This method assumes a certain degree of stationarity in the relationships between large scale patterns, surface climate variables, and crop yield anomalies. However, such an assumption was never tested, because of the lack of suitable long-term data. This study uses a unique dataset of subnational crop yields in France covering more than a century. By calibrating and comparing statistical models linking large scale circulation patterns and observed surface climate variables to crop yield anomalies, we can demonstrate that the relationship between large scale patterns and surface variables relevant for crop yields is not stationary. Therefore, large scale circulation pattern based crop yield forecasting methods can be adopted for seasonal predictions provided that regression parameters are constantly updated. However, the statistical crop yield models based on large-scale circulation patterns are not suitable for decadal predictions or climate change impact assessments at even longer time-scales. © 2020 Institute of Physics Publishing. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	France; Large-scale atmospheric circulation; Maize; Wheat
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Crops; Food supply; Forecasting; Climate change impact assessments; Crop yield forecasting; Decadal predictions; Degree of stationarity; Large-scale circulation patterns; Regional surface climate; Regression parameters; Statistical approach; Climate change; climate change; climate effect; crop yield; environmental impact assessment; food security; harvesting; maize; temporal analysis; twentieth century; wheat; France; Triticum aestivum; Zea mays
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153808
作者单位	Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra, 2027, Italy; Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, c/Jordi Girona 31, Barcelona, 08034, Spain; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ-UPSACLAY, F-Gif sur Yvette, 91191, France; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ceglar A.,Zampieri M.,Gonzalez-Reviriego N.,et al. Time-varying impact of climate on maize and wheat yields in France since 1900[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Ceglar A.,Zampieri M.,Gonzalez-Reviriego N.,Ciais P.,Schauberger B.,&Van Der Velde M..(2020).Time-varying impact of climate on maize and wheat yields in France since 1900.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Ceglar A.,et al."Time-varying impact of climate on maize and wheat yields in France since 1900".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).