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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9db3
	Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5 C and 2 C warming
	Takeshima A.; Kim H.; Shiogama H.; Lierhammer L.; Scinocca J.F.; Seland O.; Mitchell D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Increased aridity and drought risks are significant global concerns. However, there are few comprehensive studies on the related risks with regard to the differences between relatively weak levels of warming, including the recent targets of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of 1.5 C or 2 C. The present study investigates the impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming on aridification and their non-linearity based on the relationship between available water and energy at the Earth's terrestrial surface. Large multi-model ensembles with a 4000-model-year in total are sourced from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis, and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. Results demonstrate that 2 C warming results in more frequent dry states in the Amazon Basin, western Europe, and southern Africa, and a limited warming to 1.5 C will mitigate aridification and increase the frequency of extreme dry-year in these regions. In the Mediterranean region, a significant acceleration of aridification is found from the 1.5 C to 2 C warming projections, which indicates a need to limit the warming by 1.5 C. A substantial portion of Asia is projected to become increasingly humid under both 1.5 C and 2 C warming scenarios. In some geographic regions, such as Australia, a strong nonlinear shift of aridification is found as 2 C warming results in shift to wetter state contrast to significant increases in aridity and dry-year frequency at the weaker level of warming. The results suggest that the responses of regional precipitation to global warming cause the aridity changes, but their nonlinear behaviors along with different warming levels should be assessed carefully, in particular, to incorporate the additional 0.5 C warming. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Environmental regulations; Global warming; Available water; Energy and water balance; Mediterranean region; Multi-model ensemble; Nonlinear behavior; Terrestrial surface; United nations framework convention on climate changes; Western Europe; Earth (planet); aridification; aridity; drought; global warming; nonlinearity; surface energy; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; warming; water budget; Amazon Basin; Australia
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153733
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; National Institute of Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; German Climate Computing Center, Hamburg, Germany; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Takeshima A.,Kim H.,Shiogama H.,et al. Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5 C and 2 C warming[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Takeshima A..,Kim H..,Shiogama H..,Lierhammer L..,Scinocca J.F..,...&Mitchell D..(2020).Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5 C and 2 C warming.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Takeshima A.,et al."Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5 C and 2 C warming".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).