气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drivers of increasing global crop production: A decomposition analysis

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e9c
	Drivers of increasing global crop production: A decomposition analysis
	Blomqvist L.; Yates L.; Brook B.W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Rising crop production over the last half century has had far-reaching consequences for human welfare and the environment. With food demand projected to rise, one of the central challenges in minimizing agriculture's impacts on the climate and biodiversity is to increase crop production with higher yields rather than more cropland. However, quantifying progress is challenging. When analyzed at the most aggregated, global level, yields can be defined as the total crop output per unit area per year, but aggregate yields are driven by multiple factors, only some of which have a clear relationship to improved agricultural production. To date, there is no research that simultaneously determines how much of rising crop production has been met by rising aggregate yields versus cropland expansion, while also quantifying the unique contribution of each yield driver. Using LMDI decomposition analysis, we find that rising aggregate yields contributed far more than cropland expansion (89% compared to 11%). That is, growing global food demand has by and large been met by growing more crops on the same amount of land, rather than expanding cropland. Our second-stage decomposition showed that nearly two-thirds of aggregate yield improvements have come from pure yield, or the output of a given crop per unit of harvested cropland area in a given country per unit area per year. The remainder has come from less-discussed drivers of aggregate yields, including cropping intensity, changes in the geographic distribution of cropland, and crop composition. Further, we use attribution analysis to show the contributions to different decomposition factors from countries grouped by climate, income, and region, as well as from different crops. Such granular yet comprehensive breakdowns of crop production and aggregate yields offer more accurate forecasts and can help focus policies on the most promising levers to meet rising food demand sustainably. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Agriculture; Crop production; Decomposition analysis; Land use
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Biodiversity; Crops; Cultivation; Expansion; Geographical distribution; Agricultural productions; Crop production; Decomposition analysis; Food demand; Higher yield; Human welfare; Multiple factors; Yield Improvement; Aggregates; agricultural modeling; crop production; crop yield; decomposition analysis; global change
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153729
作者单位	Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, United States; School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Blomqvist L.,Yates L.,Brook B.W.. Drivers of increasing global crop production: A decomposition analysis[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Blomqvist L.,Yates L.,&Brook B.W..(2020).Drivers of increasing global crop production: A decomposition analysis.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Blomqvist L.,et al."Drivers of increasing global crop production: A decomposition analysis".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).