气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abab32
	Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK
	Kay G.; Dunstone N.; Smith D.; Dunbar T.; Eade R.; Scaife A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	Summer 2018 in the United Kingdom (UK) was its joint hottest on record and the associated impacts raise questions over societal resilience to extremes of this magnitude or greater occurring in upcoming years. Better information on the current likelihood of extreme and unprecedented events feeds into improved understanding of risk, relevant for policy and contingency planning. However, making robust estimates of likelihood is difficult given that extremes in the historical record are few by definition. We overcome this by using a large ensemble of initialised climate model simulations to assess the chance of exceeding summer 2018 temperatures in the current climate and find it to be ∼11% each year, although a weak circulation bias may mean this estimate is conservative. This likelihood has increased sharply over the last few decades. A one in 100-year event would bring summertime temperatures to the UK of approximately 1 °C above 2018, an anomaly similar to that of the notable hot summer of 1976. Subsetting the large ensemble enables characterisation of the dynamics around hot summers, and investigation of possible remote influences. Several circulation patterns bring warm temperatures to the UK, and it is likely that influences from different remote regions are active or dominant in different years. We present evidence suggesting roles for tropical precipitation anomalies via extratropical wave trains. Circulation anomalies associated with wet conditions in the Caribbean project particularly strongly onto the hot UK summer conditions, with a weaker signal from the tropical Pacific consistent with developing La Nia. We also highlight possible influence in some years from springtime high sea ice anomalies in the Sea of Okhotsk and low anomalies in the Barents/Kara seas. Building on this, we use new experiments that isolate the effects of opposing springtime sea ice anomalies in the two regions and find a causal relationship with the summertime circulation over the North Atlantic and northern Europe. © 2020 Crown copyright. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office.
英文关键词	Arctic sea ice; Climate extremes; Climate risks; Hot summers; Pamip; Tropical-extratropical links; UK climate
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Binary alloys; Sea ice; Tropics; Causal relationships; Circulation anomalies; Circulation patterns; Climate model simulations; Contingency planning; Historical records; Tropical precipitation; Warm temperatures; Climate models; ensemble forecasting; environmental research; maximum likelihood analysis; summer; United Kingdom; Nia
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153724
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kay G.,Dunstone N.,Smith D.,et al. Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Kay G.,Dunstone N.,Smith D.,Dunbar T.,Eade R.,&Scaife A..(2020).Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Kay G.,et al."Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).