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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7b98
	Current chance of unprecedented monsoon rainfall over India using dynamical ensemble simulations
	Jain S.; Scaife A.A.; Dunstone N.; Smith D.; Mishra S.K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:9
英文摘要	In the past, India has suffered severe socio-economic losses due to recurring floods and droughts during boreal summer (June-August). In this analysis, we estimate the chance of extreme summer rainfall, i.e. flood and drought over India for the present climate using the UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles (UNSEEN) method. This is the first application of the method to the hindcasts from multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean models. We first test individual models against the observed rainfall record over India and select models that are statistically indistinguishable from observations. We then calculate the chances of floods, droughts and unprecedented rainfall using 1669 realizations of summer precipitation from the selected set of models. It is found that the chance of drought is larger than the chance of flood in the present climate. There is a clear El Nio (La Nia) signal in dry (wet) summers and the occurrence of more frequent and intense droughts than floods in both models and observations is partly due to El Nio Southern Oscillation phase asymmetry. The chances of record-breaking drought and flood are 1.6% and 2.6%, respectively. There is also an estimated chance that a 30% rainfall deficit could occur around once in two centuries, which is far beyond the record deficit over India. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Climate historical forecasts project; Extreme rainfall; Multimodel ensemble; Seasonal hindcasts; Seasonal predictions
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Atmospheric thermodynamics; Drought; Floods; Losses; Ensemble simulation; Individual models; Monsoon rainfall; Ocean model; Socio-economics; Southern oscillation; Summer precipitation; Summer rainfall; Rain; ensemble forecasting; monsoon; rainfall; simulation; India; Nia
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153706
作者单位	Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, Delhi, India; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitz Roy Road, Devon, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jain S.,Scaife A.A.,Dunstone N.,et al. Current chance of unprecedented monsoon rainfall over India using dynamical ensemble simulations[J],2020,15(9).
APA	Jain S.,Scaife A.A.,Dunstone N.,Smith D.,&Mishra S.K..(2020).Current chance of unprecedented monsoon rainfall over India using dynamical ensemble simulations.Environmental Research Letters,15(9).
MLA	Jain S.,et al."Current chance of unprecedented monsoon rainfall over India using dynamical ensemble simulations".Environmental Research Letters 15.9(2020).