气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected changes in fire size from daily spread potential in Canada over the 21st century

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aba101
	Projected changes in fire size from daily spread potential in Canada over the 21st century
	Wang X.; Studens K.; Parisien M.-A.; Taylor S.W.; Candau J.-N.; Boulanger Y.; Flannigan M.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	The broad consensus indicates that climate change will cause larger and more frequent fires, resulting in a growing annual area burned (AAB) in much of Canada. Our ability to predict future changes in fire size (FS) and AAB is limited due to the uncertainty embedded in climate change models and our inability to quantify the complex interactions between the changing environment and fire activity. In this study, we introduce a new method to predict future FS and AAB across Canada over the 21st century based on fire-conducive weather and how it translates to on-the-ground fire spread (i.e. spread days). We found that the potential for an extreme fire year (99th percentile of AAB) could quadruple by the end of the century across Canada, and ≥ 10 times more common in the boreal biome. Specifically, FS and AAB may increase 20%–64% and 25%–93%, respectively, and the average fire year under the extreme climate scenario may burn ~11 Mha, which is ~4 Mha higher than the most extreme fire year in Canada’s modern history (~7 Mha). Our results demonstrate that by accounting for the strong nonlinear expansion of wildfires as a function of number of fire spread days, even conservative climate-change scenarios may yield significant increase in fire activity. © 2020 The Author(s).
英文关键词	Annual area burn; Canada; Climate change; Fire size; Spread days; Wildfire
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Fires; Annual area burned; Changing environment; Climate change scenarios; Extreme climates; Fire activity; Fire size; Fire spread; Non-linear expansion; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; extreme event; quantitative analysis; twenty first century; uncertainty analysis; Canada
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153694
作者单位	Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada; Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320-122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada; Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5, Canada; Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Sainte-Foy, QC G1V 4C7, Canada; Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Service Building, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang X.,Studens K.,Parisien M.-A.,et al. Projected changes in fire size from daily spread potential in Canada over the 21st century[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Wang X..,Studens K..,Parisien M.-A..,Taylor S.W..,Candau J.-N..,...&Flannigan M.D..(2020).Projected changes in fire size from daily spread potential in Canada over the 21st century.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Wang X.,et al."Projected changes in fire size from daily spread potential in Canada over the 21st century".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).