气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aba97d
	Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts
	Helman D.; Zaitchik B.F.; Funk C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	There is an active debate regarding the influence that climate has on the risk of armed conflict, which stems from challenges in assembling unbiased datasets, competing hypotheses on the mechanisms of climate influence, and the difficulty of disentangling direct and indirect climate effects. We use gridded historical non-state conflict records, satellite data, and land surface models in a structural equation modeling approach to uncover the direct and indirect effects of climate on violent conflicts in Africa and the Middle East (ME). We show that climate–conflict linkages in these regions are more complex than previously suggested, with multiple mechanisms at work. Warm temperatures and low rainfall direct effects on conflict risk were stronger than indirect effects through food and water supplies. Warming increases the risk of violence in Africa but unexpectedly decreases this risk in the ME. Furthermore, at the country level, warming decreases the risk of violence in most West African countries. Overall, we find a non-linear response of conflict to warming across countries that depends on the local temperature conditions. We further show that magnitude and sign of the effects largely depend on the scale of analysis and geographical context. These results imply that extreme caution should be exerted when attempting to explain or project local climate–conflict relationships based on a single, generalized theory. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
英文关键词	Africa; Climate; Conflict; Middle East; Structural equation model; Violence; Warming
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Water supply; Climate effects; Generalized theory; Indirect effects; Land surface models; Local temperature; Non-linear response; Structural equation modeling; Warm temperatures; Climate models; climate effect; climate prediction; data set; extreme event; land surface; nature-society relations; rainfall; satellite data; temperature; violence; Africa; Middle East
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153650
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States; Department of Soil and Water Sciences, Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Rehovot, Advanced School for Environmental Studies, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Sioux Falls, SD, United States; Climate Hazards Center, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Helman D.,Zaitchik B.F.,Funk C.. Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Helman D.,Zaitchik B.F.,&Funk C..(2020).Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Helman D.,et al."Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).