气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794
	Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals
	Vosper E.L.; Mitchell D.M.; Emanuel K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	Hurricanes are among the most impactful extreme weather events affecting small island states such as the Caribbean and require long-term planning for community and infrastructure resilience. By coupling an offline dynamical hurricane model to the output of a large ensemble of global climate model simulations from the Half a degree of Additional warming Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we assess how the impacts of hurricanes may change under the Paris Climate goals. Specifically, we concentrate on hurricane rainfall over particular regions, with both the mobility and intensity of a hurricane being key drivers of local level impacts. For example, Hurricane Dorian (2019) caused widespread devastation when it stalled over Bahamas as a category 5 storm. We show that since 1970 only one other hurricane stalled at this strength: Hurricane Mitch (1998). Due to a combination of increased stalling and precipitation yield under a warmer world, our analysis indicates a greater likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall occurring in the Caribbean under both Paris Agreement scenarios of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C Global Warming goals, compared to present climate projections. Focusing on specific hurricane events, we show that a rainfall event equal in magnitude to Hurricane Maria is around half as likely to occur under the 1.5 ◦C Paris Agreement goal compared to a 2 ◦C warmer climate. Our results highlight the need for more research into hurricanes in the Caribbean, an area which has traditionally received far less attention than mainland USA and requires more comprehensive infrastructure planning. © 2020 The Author(s).
英文关键词	Climate change; Hurricane; Paris agreement; Rainfall; Stalling; The Caribbean
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Global warming; Rain; Climate projection; Extreme weather events; Global climate model simulations; Hurricane events; Infrastructure planning; Infrastructure resiliences; Long term planning; Rainfall event; Hurricanes; climate modeling; global climate; hurricane; numerical model; simulation; warming; Bahamas
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153598
作者单位	School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Tyndalls Park Road, Bristol, BS8 1TS, United Kingdom; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vosper E.L.,Mitchell D.M.,Emanuel K.. Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Vosper E.L.,Mitchell D.M.,&Emanuel K..(2020).Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Vosper E.L.,et al."Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).