气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7
	The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability
	Mitchell D.M.; Eunice Lo Y.T.; Seviour W.J.M.; Haimberger L.; Polvani L.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:10
英文摘要	Tropospheric and stratospheric tropical temperature trends in recent decades have been notoriously hard to simulate using climate models, particularly in the upper troposphere. Aside from the warming trend itself, this has broader implications, e.g. atmospheric circulation trends depend on latitudinal temperature gradients. In this study, tropical temperature trends in the CMIP6 models are examined, from 1979 to 2014, and contrasted with trends from the RICH/RAOBCORE radiosondes, and the ERA5/5.1 reanalysis. As in earlier studies, we find considerable warming biases in the CMIP6 modeled trends, and we show that these biases are linked to biases in surface temperature. We also uncover previously undocumented biases in the lower-middle stratosphere: the CMIP6 models appear unable to capture the time evolution of stratospheric cooling, which is non-monotonic owing to the Montreal Protocol. Finally, using models with large ensembles, we show that their standard deviation in tropospheric temperature trends, which is due to internal variability alone, explains ∼ 50% (± 20%) of that from the CMIP6 models. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	bias; CMIP6; models; stratosphere; temperature trends; troposphere
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Tropics; Troposphere; Atmospheric circulation; Internal variability; Montreal Protocols; Standard deviation; Surface temperatures; Tropical temperatures; Tropospheric temperature; Upper troposphere; Atmospheric temperature; air-sea interaction; atmospheric circulation; CMIP; Montreal Protocol; persistence; stratosphere; surface temperature; trend analysis; troposphere; vertical profile; warming
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153565
作者单位	Cabot Institute for the Environment, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Global Systems Institute, Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mitchell D.M.,Eunice Lo Y.T.,Seviour W.J.M.,et al. The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability[J],2020,15(10).
APA	Mitchell D.M.,Eunice Lo Y.T.,Seviour W.J.M.,Haimberger L.,&Polvani L.M..(2020).The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability.Environmental Research Letters,15(10).
MLA	Mitchell D.M.,et al."The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability".Environmental Research Letters 15.10(2020).