气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Agricultural decision making and climate uncertainty in developing countries

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abb909
	Agricultural decision making and climate uncertainty in developing countries
	Waldman K.B.; Todd P.M.; Omar S.; Blekking J.P.; Giroux S.A.; Attari S.Z.; Baylis K.; Evans T.P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:11
英文摘要	In situations of uncertainty, people often make decisions with heuristic shortcuts or decision rules, rather than using computational or logical methods such as optimizing their behavior based on specific goals. The high level of uncertainty and complexity involved in adapting to climate change suggests that heuristics would be commonly used in this context rather than more structured decision methods. Through a systematic review of 137 articles, from 2007-2017 we explore the behavioral and cognitive assumptions used to examine agricultural decision-making related to climate change among farmers in developing countries. We find a strong orientation toward modeling behavior and decision making as a rational utility-maximizing process, despite decades of research demonstrating the prevalence of simpler heuristic choice when facing uncertainty and real-world constraints. Behavioral and cognitive approaches can increase our ability to predict or explain decisions being made in this realm, particularly in terms of how we understand decision making around information processing and risk assessment. In the following review, we highlight articles that have contributed to developing a more realistic decision-making framework for studying this problem on the ground. While there is a burgeoning literature using psychological insights to examine decision making under climate uncertainty, few studies consider the prevalence of simple heuristics, the presence of cognitive biases, and the salience of climate relative to other risk factors. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	agriculture; behavior; climate change; heuristics; rationality
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Agriculture; Behavioral research; Decision making; Developing countries; Heuristic methods; Risk assessment; Uncertainty analysis; Cognitive approaches; Decision-making frameworks; Modeling behavior; Psychological insights; Real world constraints; Strong orientation; Systematic Review; Uncertainty and complexity; Climate change; agricultural policy; climate change; decision making; developing world; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/153498
作者单位	Department of Geography, Indiana UniversityIN, United States; Cognitive Science Program, Indiana UniversityIN, United States; O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana UniversityIN, United States; Ostrom Workshop, Indiana UniversityIN, United States; Department of Geography, University of California Santa BarbaraCA, United States; School of Geography and Development, University of ArizonaAZ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Waldman K.B.,Todd P.M.,Omar S.,et al. Agricultural decision making and climate uncertainty in developing countries[J],2020,15(11).
APA	Waldman K.B..,Todd P.M..,Omar S..,Blekking J.P..,Giroux S.A..,...&Evans T.P..(2020).Agricultural decision making and climate uncertainty in developing countries.Environmental Research Letters,15(11).
MLA	Waldman K.B.,et al."Agricultural decision making and climate uncertainty in developing countries".Environmental Research Letters 15.11(2020).