气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Inferring critical transitions in paleoecological time series with irregular sampling and variable time-averaging

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DOI	10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.01.009
	Inferring critical transitions in paleoecological time series with irregular sampling and variable time-averaging
	Stegner M.A.; Ratajczak Z.; Carpenter S.R.; Williams J.W.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0277-3791
起始页码	49
结束页码	63
卷号	207
英文摘要	Many ecosystems have abruptly changed in the past and may again in the future, yet prediction and inference of mechanisms causing abrupt changes remains challenging. Critical transitions are one such mechanism, occurring when systems with alternative states cross a threshold. Such transitions are associated with a loss of resilience, often signaled by increasing variability or autocorrelation over time. However, critical transitions are difficult to distinguish from other causal mechanisms, and detection of resilience loss in sedimentary archives can be confounded by time-averaging and discontinuous sampling. Here, we simulate woodland-grassland regime shifts resulting from critical transitions and other mechanisms. We then test the diagnostic ability of two widely-used resilience indicators, standard deviation and autocorrelation time, after alterations common in sedimentary records: time averaging, discontinuous sampling, and varying sedimentation rates. Standard deviation—but not autocorrelation time—still distinguishes gradually forced critical transitions from other regime shifts when sedimentation rates are constant, and can be robust to abrupt changes in sedimentation rate. Unfortunately, shifts in standard deviation alone are rarely definitive evidence of critical transitions. Under exponential sedimentation regimes, which are common in younger upper-column sediments, neither resilience indicator is effective. Discontinuous sampling weakened the strength of resilience indicators. A demonstrative analysis of abrupt early Holocene deforestation recorded at Steel Lake, Minnesota showed signals consistent with resilience loss during early Holocene aridification. Hence, signals of resilience loss can be recovered from sedimentary archives, but efficacy varies among indicators and sedimentation regime. High-resolution and multi-proxy records remain essential to inferring causes, while process-based time series modeling such as this can be calibrated to systems of interest to explicitly test hypotheses about abrupt change causes. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Abrupt change; Critical transitions; Data analysis; Data treatment; Global; Paleolimnology; Quaternary; Regime shifts; Resilience indicators; Vegetation dynamics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Autocorrelation; Data reduction; Deforestation; Paleolimnology; Sedimentology; Time series; Abrupt change; Data treatment; Global; Quaternary; Regime shift; Vegetation dynamics; Sedimentation; aridification; data acquisition; deforestation; Holocene; paleoecology; paleolimnology; proxy climate record; sampling; sedimentation; sedimentation rate; time series; vegetation dynamics; woodland; Minnesota; Steel Lake; United States
来源期刊	Quaternary Science Reviews
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/152014
作者单位	Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Stegner M.A.,Ratajczak Z.,Carpenter S.R.,et al. Inferring critical transitions in paleoecological time series with irregular sampling and variable time-averaging[J],2019,207.
APA	Stegner M.A.,Ratajczak Z.,Carpenter S.R.,&Williams J.W..(2019).Inferring critical transitions in paleoecological time series with irregular sampling and variable time-averaging.Quaternary Science Reviews,207.
MLA	Stegner M.A.,et al."Inferring critical transitions in paleoecological time series with irregular sampling and variable time-averaging".Quaternary Science Reviews 207(2019).