气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A new stochastic oil spill risk assessment model for Persian Gulf: Development; application and evaluation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.05.022
	A new stochastic oil spill risk assessment model for Persian Gulf: Development; application and evaluation
	Amir-Heidari P.; Raie M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0025326X
起始页码	357
结束页码	369
卷号	145
英文摘要	Persian Gulf is a semi-enclosed highly saline reverse estuary that is exposed to the risk of oil spills in offshore oil and gas activities. In the early 2000s, a specific version of NOAA's Trajectory Analysis Planner (TAP II) was developed for Persian Gulf to assist regional organizations in preparing oil spill contingency plans. In this research, a new stochastic model is developed to cover the limitations of TAP II. The new model is based on an advanced trajectory model, which is now linked with high resolution spatiotemporal data of the wind and sea current. In a case study, the developed model is compared with TAP II, and evaluated by multiple tests designed for analysis of uncertainty, sensitivity, reliability and variability. The case study proved the applicability of the new model, and the evaluation tests provided useful information for the future development of the model. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Oil spill; Risk assessment; Sensitivity analysis; Stochastic model; Uncertainty analysis, reliability analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Marine pollution; Offshore oil well production; Oil spills; Reliability analysis; Risk assessment; Sensitivity analysis; Stochastic systems; Uncertainty analysis; Contingency plans; Developed model; Evaluation test; High resolution; Oil spill risk assessments; Spatio-temporal data; Trajectory analysis; Trajectory modeling; Stochastic models; modeling; oil spill; reliability analysis; risk assessment; sensitivity analysis; stochasticity; uncertainty analysis; article; oil spill; Persian Gulf; reliability; risk assessment; sensitivity analysis; stochastic model; uncertainty; Indian Ocean; reproducibility; risk assessment; theoretical model; wind; Arabian Sea; Indian Ocean; Persian Gulf; Indian Ocean; Models, Theoretical; Petroleum Pollution; Reproducibility of Results; Risk Assessment; Wind
来源期刊	Marine Pollution Bulletin
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/149801
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box. 11365-11155, Tehran, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Amir-Heidari P.,Raie M.. A new stochastic oil spill risk assessment model for Persian Gulf: Development; application and evaluation[J],2019,145.
APA	Amir-Heidari P.,&Raie M..(2019).A new stochastic oil spill risk assessment model for Persian Gulf: Development; application and evaluation.Marine Pollution Bulletin,145.
MLA	Amir-Heidari P.,et al."A new stochastic oil spill risk assessment model for Persian Gulf: Development; application and evaluation".Marine Pollution Bulletin 145(2019).