气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2014.103
	An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions
	Åström H.; Friis Hansen P.; Garré L.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen K.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	276
结束页码	286
卷号	5 期号:3
英文摘要	Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under non- stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes. Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time. The overall risk is quantified in monetary terms expressed as expected annual damage. The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time. The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future. The result from the ID was extended with a cost-benefit analysis defining the net benefits for the investment plans. We tested our framework in a case study where the risk for flooding was assessed on a railway track in Risskov, Aarhus. Drainage system improvements are planned for the area. Our study illustrates with the use of an ID how risk for flooding increases over time, and the benefits of implementing flood adaptation measures. © IWA Publishing 2014.
英文关键词	Bayesian network; Climate change; Cost-benefit analysis; Decision-making; Flood risk assessment; Influence diagram
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Flood hazards; Flood risk assessments; Influence diagram; Non-stationary condition; Urban flood risks; Bayesian networks; adaptive management; Bayesian analysis; climate change; cost-benefit analysis; decision making; decision support system; flooding; risk assessment; urban area; Aarhus [Denmark]; Denmark
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148269
作者单位	Department of Environmental Engineering, Section of Urban Water Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, DK-2800, Denmark; Det Norske Veritas, Høvik, 1322, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Åström H.,Friis Hansen P.,Garré L.,et al. An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions[J],2014,5(3).
APA	Åström H.,Friis Hansen P.,Garré L.,&Arnbjerg-Nielsen K..(2014).An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions.Journal of Water and Climate Change,5(3).
MLA	Åström H.,et al."An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions".Journal of Water and Climate Change 5.3(2014).