气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the johor River Basin; Malaysia using a cmip5 general circulation model ensemble

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2014.020
	Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the johor River Basin; Malaysia using a cmip5 general circulation model ensemble
	Tan M.L.; Ficklin D.L.; Ibrahim A.L.; Yusop Z.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	676
结束页码	695
卷号	5 期号:4
英文摘要	The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) on streamflow in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia was assessed. Eighteen GCMs were evaluated, and the six that adequately simulated historical climate were selected for an ensemble of GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions)) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) as inputs into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. We also quantified the uncertainties associated with GCM structure, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), and prescribed increases of global temperature (1–6° C) through streamflow changes. The SWAT model simulated historical monthly streamflow well, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.66 for calibration and 0.62 for validation. Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the results indicate that annual precipitation changes of 1.01 to 8.88% and annual temperature of 0.60–3.21° C will lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period. The study indicates multiple climate change scenarios are important for a robust hydrological impact assessment. © IWA Publishing 2014.
英文关键词	Climate change; Johor River; Malaysia; Streamflow; SWAT; Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Greenhouse gases; River basin projects; Rivers; Soil pollution; Stream flow; Uncertainty analysis; Watersheds; Climate change scenarios; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; General circulation model; Hydrological impact assessments; Malaysia; Soil and water assessment tool; SWAT; Uncertainty; Climate change
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148262
作者单位	Institute of Geospatial Science and Technology (INSTeG), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, UTM Skudai, Johor Bahru, 81310, Malaysia; Department of Geography, Indiana University, 701. E. Kirkwood Ave, Bloomington, IN 47405, United States; Institute of Environmental and Water Resources Management, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, UTM Skudai, Johor Bahru, 81210, Malaysia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tan M.L.,Ficklin D.L.,Ibrahim A.L.,et al. Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the johor River Basin; Malaysia using a cmip5 general circulation model ensemble[J],2014,5(4).
APA	Tan M.L.,Ficklin D.L.,Ibrahim A.L.,&Yusop Z..(2014).Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the johor River Basin; Malaysia using a cmip5 general circulation model ensemble.Journal of Water and Climate Change,5(4).
MLA	Tan M.L.,et al."Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the johor River Basin; Malaysia using a cmip5 general circulation model ensemble".Journal of Water and Climate Change 5.4(2014).