气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of climate change impacts on streamflow to a multiple reservoir system using a data-based mechanistic model

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2014.012
	Evaluation of climate change impacts on streamflow to a multiple reservoir system using a data-based mechanistic model
	Nazif S.; Karamouz M.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	610
结束页码	624
卷号	5 期号:4
英文摘要	Recent investigations have demonstrated scientists’ consensus on the increase in global mean temperature and climate variability. These changes alter the hydro-climatic condition of regions. Investigation of surface water changes is an important issue in water resources planning as well as for the operation of reservoirs. In this study a data-based mechanistic (DBM) model has been used for daily streamflow simulation. This model is a data-driven statistical base simulation model that can take advantage of additional climate variables with time variable configurations. The model has been developed for simulation of streamflow to three reservoirs, located in central Iran, using the daily rainfall, temperature and streamflow data. Comparison of the DBM results with the autoregressive integrated moving average model, as an alternative model, shows its higher performance. To include climate change impacts in study, an artificial neural network-based statistical downscaling model is developed for rainfall and temperature downscaling. The downscaled temperature and rainfall data under climate change scenarios based on HadCM3 general circulation model outputs are used to evaluate the climate change impacts on streamflow for the 2000–2050 time horizon. The results demonstrate the considerable impact of climate change on streamflow variability with significantly different behaviour in the three adjacent basins. © 2014, IWA Publishing. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; DBM; Rainfall; Streamflow simulation; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Database systems; Neural networks; Petroleum reservoir evaluation; Rain; Reservoirs (water); Stream flow; Surface water resources; Surface waters; Temperature; Autoregressive integrated moving average models; Climate change scenarios; General circulation model; Global-mean temperature; Statistical downscaling; Streamflow simulations; Streamflow variability; Water resources planning; Climate change
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148247
作者单位	School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; Polytechnic School of Engineering, New York University, Brooklyn, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nazif S.,Karamouz M.. Evaluation of climate change impacts on streamflow to a multiple reservoir system using a data-based mechanistic model[J],2014,5(4).
APA	Nazif S.,&Karamouz M..(2014).Evaluation of climate change impacts on streamflow to a multiple reservoir system using a data-based mechanistic model.Journal of Water and Climate Change,5(4).
MLA	Nazif S.,et al."Evaluation of climate change impacts on streamflow to a multiple reservoir system using a data-based mechanistic model".Journal of Water and Climate Change 5.4(2014).