气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2015.086
	The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment
	Todorovic A.; Plavsic J.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	16
结束页码	28
卷号	7 期号:1
英文摘要	Assessment of climate change (CC) impact on hydrologic regime requires a calibrated rainfall-runoff model, defined by its structure and parameters. The parameter values depend, inter alia, on the calibration period. This paper investigates influence of the calibration period on parameter values, model efficiency and streamflow projections under CC. To this end, a conceptual HBV-light model of the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia is calibrated against flows observed within 5 consecutive wettest, driest, warmest and coldest years and in the complete record period. The optimised parameters reveal high sensitivity towards calibration period. Hydrologic projections under climate change are developed by employing (1) five hydrologic models with outputs of one GCM–RCM chain (Global and Regional Climate Models) and (2) one hydrologic model with five GCM–RCM outputs. Sign and magnitude of change in projected variables, compared to the corresponding values simulated over the baseline period, vary with the hydrologic model used. This variability is comparable in magnitude to variability stemming from climate models. Models calibrated over periods with similar precipitation as the projected ones may result in less uncertain projections, while warmer climate is not expected to contribute to the uncertainty in flow projections. Simulations over prolonged dry periods are expected to be uncertain. © IWA Publishing 2016.
英文关键词	Climate change; Hydrologic modelling; Kolubara River; Parameter transferability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Climate models; Runoff; Water resources; Calibration periods; Climate change impact; Hydrologic modeling; Hydrologic modelling; Parameter transferability; Rainfall-runoff modeling; Regional climate models; Water resources assessment; Climate change; calibration; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; rainfall-runoff modeling; resource assessment; water resource; Kolubara River; Serbia; Hepatitis B virus
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148176
作者单位	Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, Bulevar Kralja Aleksandra 73, Belgrade, Serbia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Todorovic A.,Plavsic J.. The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment[J],2016,7(1).
APA	Todorovic A.,&Plavsic J..(2016).The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment.Journal of Water and Climate Change,7(1).
MLA	Todorovic A.,et al."The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment".Journal of Water and Climate Change 7.1(2016).