气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Observed and simulated climate and climate change in the lower neretva river basin

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2017.034
	Observed and simulated climate and climate change in the lower neretva river basin
	Gajić-Cǎpka M.; Güttler I.; Cindrić K.; Branković C.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	124
结束页码	136
卷号	9 期号:1
英文摘要	The lower Neretva river basin includes a fertile valley at the estuary into the Adriatic Sea, where intense agricultural production occurs, and the higher terrain where drinking water resources exist. To provide input for the further assessment of crop-yield production and hydrological risks, climate and climate change were analysed using the Opuzen station air temperature and total precipitation data for the 1961–2015 period. Both historical and future climates (2021–2050) were assessed based on simulations of three regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs were forced by the observed concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from 1951 to 2000, and the IPCC A1B scenario of the GHG emissions was applied from 2001 onwards. The models were compared with the observations, and two bias adjustment methods were evaluated. The results generally showed a significant increase in the mean annual and seasonal temperature and a weak decreasing trend in annual and seasonal precipitation. Projections revealed a predominant increase in the mean temperature by the mid-21st century for all three RCMs (between 0.5 and 3.5 ° C). The precipitation changed by between 60 and +60% throughout the year for the different models, although the changes generally were not statistically significant. © IWA Publishing 2018.
英文关键词	Air temperature; Extremes; Interannual variability; Precipitation; Regional climate models; Trend
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Atmospheric temperature; Climate models; Greenhouse gases; Potable water; Precipitation (chemical); Risk assessment; Surface water resources; Water resources; Watersheds; Air temperature; Extremes; Interannual variability; Regional climate models; Trend; Climate change; air temperature; annual variation; climate change; climate modeling; extreme event; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; river basin; trend analysis; Neretva River
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/148066
作者单位	Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ), Gric 3, Zagreb, HR 10000, Croatia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gajić-Cǎpka M.,Güttler I.,Cindrić K.,et al. Observed and simulated climate and climate change in the lower neretva river basin[J],2018,9(1).
APA	Gajić-Cǎpka M.,Güttler I.,Cindrić K.,&Branković C..(2018).Observed and simulated climate and climate change in the lower neretva river basin.Journal of Water and Climate Change,9(1).
MLA	Gajić-Cǎpka M.,et al."Observed and simulated climate and climate change in the lower neretva river basin".Journal of Water and Climate Change 9.1(2018).