气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting vegetation phenology in response to climate change using bioclimatic indices in Iraq

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2018.142
	Predicting vegetation phenology in response to climate change using bioclimatic indices in Iraq
	Daham A.; Han D.; Jolly W.M.; Rico-Ramirez M.; Marsh A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	835
结束页码	851
卷号	10 期号:4
英文摘要	Although most phenology models can predict vegetation response to climatic variations, these models often perform poorly in precipitation-limited regions. In this study, we modified a phenology model, called the Growing Season Index (GSI), to better quantify relationships between weather and vegetation canopy dynamics across various semi-arid regions of Iraq. A modified GSI was created by adding a cumulative precipitation control to the existing GSI framework. Both unmodified and modified GSI values were calculated daily from 2001 to 2010 for three locations in Eastern Iraq: Sulaymaniyah (north), Wasit (central) and Basrah (south) and a countrywide mean and compared to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the same time period. Countrywide median inter-annual correlations between GSI and NDVI more than doubled with the addition of the precipitation control and within-site correlations also show substantial improvements. The modified model has huge potential to be used to predict future phenological responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as to reconstruct historical vegetation conditions. This study improves our understanding of potential vegetation responses to climatic changes across Iraq, but it should improve phenological predictions across other semi-arid worldwide, particularly in the face of rapid climate change and environmental deterioration. © IWA Publishing 2019.
英文关键词	Climate change; GSI phenological model; Minimum temperature; Photoperiod; Precipitation; Vapour pressure deficit
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Deterioration; Forecasting; Precipitation (chemical); Radiometers; Vegetation; Cumulative precipitation; Environmental deterioration; Minimum temperatures; Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer; Normalized difference vegetation index; Phenological model; Photoperiod; Vapour pressure deficits; Climate change; bioclimatology; climate change; climate effect; phenology; photoperiod; precipitation (climatology); prediction; semiarid region; temperature effect; vapor pressure; vegetation; Iraq
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147963
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fire Sciences Laboratory, 5775 Hwy 10 W, Missoula, MT 59808, United States; Institute of Archaeology, University College London, 31–34 Gordon Square, London, WC1H 0PY, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Daham A.,Han D.,Jolly W.M.,et al. Predicting vegetation phenology in response to climate change using bioclimatic indices in Iraq[J],2019,10(4).
APA	Daham A.,Han D.,Jolly W.M.,Rico-Ramirez M.,&Marsh A..(2019).Predicting vegetation phenology in response to climate change using bioclimatic indices in Iraq.Journal of Water and Climate Change,10(4).
MLA	Daham A.,et al."Predicting vegetation phenology in response to climate change using bioclimatic indices in Iraq".Journal of Water and Climate Change 10.4(2019).