气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Trend analysis of watershed-scale annual and seasonal precipitation in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled future climate projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2018.241
	Trend analysis of watershed-scale annual and seasonal precipitation in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled future climate projections
	Ishida K.; Ercan A.; Trinh T.; Jang S.; Kavvas M.L.; Ohara N.; Chen Z.Q.; Kure S.; Dib A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	86
结束页码	105
卷号	11 期号:1
英文摘要	Impact of future climate change on watershed-scale precipitation was investigated over Northern California based on future climate projections by means of the dynamical downscaling approach. Thirteen different future climate projection realizations from two general circulation models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCSM3) based on four emission scenarios (SRES A1B, A1FI, A2, and B1) were dynamically downscaled to 9-km resolution grids over eight watersheds in Northern California for a period of 90 water years (2010–2100). Analysis of daily precipitation over the eight watersheds showed that precipitation values obtained from dynamical downscaling of the 1981 to 1999 control runs of ECHAM5 and CCSM3 GCMs compared well with the PRISM data. Long-term future trends of annual and seasonal basin-average precipitation were investigated. Although a large variability exists for the projected annual basin-average precipitation within each of the 13 individual realizations, there was no significant long-term trend over the eight study watersheds except for the downward trend in the A1FI scenario. On the other hand, significant upward and downward trends were detected in the seasonal basin-average precipitation except in the winter months (January, February, and March). The trend analysis results in this study indicated the importance of considering seasonal variability, scenario, and model uncertainty. © IWA Publishing 2020.
英文关键词	Annual and seasonal precipitation; Dynamical downscaling; Future climate change; Regional climate model (RCM); Trend analysis; Watershed-scale
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Uncertainty analysis; Watersheds; Daily precipitations; Dynamical downscaling; Emission scenario; Future climate projections; General circulation model; Model uncertainties; Seasonal precipitations; Seasonal variability; Climate models; annual variation; climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; downscaling; future prospect; general circulation model; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; trend analysis; uncertainty analysis; watershed; California; United States
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147950
作者单位	Hydrologic Research Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, United States; Faculty of Advanced Science and Technology, Kumamoto University, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Kumamoto, 860-8555, Japan; J. Amorocho Hydraulics Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, United States; Korea Institute of Water and Environment, Korea Water Resources Corporation, Daejeon, 305-730, South Korea; Civil and Architectural Engineering, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, United States; California Department of Water Resources, Bay Delta Office, Sacramento, CA 95814, United States; Department of Environmental Engineering, Toyama Prefectural University, Toyama, 939-0398, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ishida K.,Ercan A.,Trinh T.,et al. Trend analysis of watershed-scale annual and seasonal precipitation in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled future climate projections[J],2020,11(1).
APA	Ishida K..,Ercan A..,Trinh T..,Jang S..,Kavvas M.L..,...&Dib A..(2020).Trend analysis of watershed-scale annual and seasonal precipitation in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled future climate projections.Journal of Water and Climate Change,11(1).
MLA	Ishida K.,et al."Trend analysis of watershed-scale annual and seasonal precipitation in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled future climate projections".Journal of Water and Climate Change 11.1(2020).