气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forecasting of droughts and tree mortality under global warming: A review of causative mechanisms and modeling methods

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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2020.239
	Forecasting of droughts and tree mortality under global warming: A review of causative mechanisms and modeling methods
	Han J.; Singh V.P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20402244
起始页码	600
结束页码	632
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	Droughts of greater severity are expected to occur more frequently at larger space-time scales under global warming and climate change. Intensified drought and increased rainfall intermittency will heighten tree mortality. To mitigate drought-driven societal and environmental hazards, reliable long-term drought forecasting is critical. This review examines causative mechanisms for drought and tree mortality, and synthesizes stochastic, statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical-dynamical drought forecasting models as well as theoretical, empirical, and mechanistic tree mortality forecasting models. Since an increase in global mean temperature changes the strength of sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnections, forecasting models should have the flexibility to incorporate the varying causality of drought. Some of the statistical drought forecasting models, which have nonlinear and nonstationary natures, can be merged with dynamical models to compensate for their lack of stochastic structure in order to improve forecasting skills. Since tree mortality is mainly affected by a hydraulic failure under drought conditions, mechanistic forecasting models, due to their capacity to track the percentage of embolisms against available soil water, are adequate to forecast tree mortality. This study also elucidates approaches to improve long-term drought forecasting and regional tree mortality forecasting as a future outlook for drought studies. © 2020 The Authors Journal of Water and Climate Change.
英文关键词	Causative mechanisms; Drought; Forecasting methods; Global warming; Soil degradation; Tree mortality
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Forestry; Global warming; Oceanography; Soil moisture; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Surface waters; Weather forecasting; Available soil waters; Causative mechanisms; Environmental hazards; Global warming and climate changes; Global-mean temperature; Sea surface temperature (SST); Statistical-dynamical; Stochastic structure; Drought; climate change; drought; forecasting method; global warming; modeling; mortality; rainfall; tree
来源期刊	Journal of Water and Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147911
作者单位	Dept. of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A & M University, TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-2117, United States; Dept. of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University, TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-2117, United States; National Water Center, UAE University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Han J.,Singh V.P.. Forecasting of droughts and tree mortality under global warming: A review of causative mechanisms and modeling methods[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Han J.,&Singh V.P..(2020).Forecasting of droughts and tree mortality under global warming: A review of causative mechanisms and modeling methods.Journal of Water and Climate Change,11(3).
MLA	Han J.,et al."Forecasting of droughts and tree mortality under global warming: A review of causative mechanisms and modeling methods".Journal of Water and Climate Change 11.3(2020).