气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102191
	Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970
	van Beek L.; Hajer M.; Pelzer P.; van Vuuren D.; Cassen C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	65
英文摘要	Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have gained a prominent role in the climate science-policy interface. The article reconstructs the evolution of IAMs and their changing role in this interface, investigating how and why IAMs have become so prominent. Based on literature analysis, quantitative document analysis and semi-structured interviews, we describe the historic evolution of the interactions between IAMs and policy-making between 1970 and 2015. We identify five historic phases in which IAMs played distinct mediating roles between science and policy, succeeding to adjust their scenario efforts to the continuously changing demands for knowledge from the policy community. In explaining the prominent role of IAMs, we differentiate between background conditions (material and sociological) and more contextual factors, most notably the flexible, hybrid and broad nature of IAMs as well as the pro-active character of the IAM community to enhance their policy relevance. We draw on the notion of institutional work to explain this success. In light of the urgency of responding to the climate crisis, we suggest that the IAM community may expand their scope of anticipated futures and consider engaging a wider range of publics and societal stakeholders beyond the science-policy interface. © 2020 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Global climate policy-making; Institutional work; Integrated assessment modelling; Science-policy interface
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual review; demand analysis; future prospect; integrated approach; questionnaire survey; reconstruction; stakeholder
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147587
作者单位	Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Urban Futures Studio, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Geoscience, Utrecht University, Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), CNRS, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van Beek L.,Hajer M.,Pelzer P.,et al. Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970[J],2020,65.
APA	van Beek L.,Hajer M.,Pelzer P.,van Vuuren D.,&Cassen C..(2020).Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970.Global Environmental Change,65.
MLA	van Beek L.,et al."Anticipating futures through models: the rise of Integrated Assessment Modelling in the climate science-policy interface since 1970".Global Environmental Change 65(2020).