气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2309-9
	Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling
	Hamlet A.F.; Byun K.; Robeson S.M.; Widhalm M.; Baldwin M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	Using an ensemble of 10 statistically downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations, we project future climate change impacts on the state of Indiana (IN) for two scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations (a medium scenario—RCP4.5 and a high scenario—RCP 8.5) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s). Relative to a 1971–2000 baseline, the projections show substantial changes in temperature (T) for IN, with a change in the annual ensemble mean T for the 2080s RCP8.5 scenario of about 5.6 °C (10.1 °F). Such changes also indicate major changes in T extremes. For southern IN, the number of days with daily maximum T above 35 °C (95 °F) is projected to be about 100 days per year for the 2080s RCP8.5 scenario, as opposed to an average of 5 days for the historical baseline climate. Locations in northern IN could experience 50 days per year above 35 °C (95 °F) for the same conditions. Energy demand for cooling, as measured by cooling degree days (CDD), is projected to increase nearly fourfold in response to this extreme warming, but heating demand as measured by heating degree days (HDD) is projected to decline by 30%, which would result in a net reduction in annual heating/cooling energy demand for consumers. The length of the growing season is projected to increase by about 30 to 50 days by the 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenario, and USDA hardiness zones are projected to shift by about one full zone throughout IN. By the 2080s, all GCM simulations for the RCP8.5 scenario show higher annual precipitation (P) over the Midwest and IN. Projected seasonal changes in P include a 25–30% increase in winter and spring by the 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenarios and a 1–7% decline in summer and fall P (although there is a low model agreement in the latter two seasons). Rising T is projected to cause systematic decreases in the snow-to-rain ratio from Nov-Mar. Snow is projected to become uncommon in southern IN by the 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenario, and snowfall is substantially reduced in other areas of the state. The combined effects of these changes in T, P, and snowfall will likely result in increased surface runoff and flooding during winter and spring. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Energy management; Greenhouse gases; Snow; Annual precipitation; Cooling degree days; Future projections; Gas concentration; Global climate model; Heating degree-days; Seasonal changes; Statistical downscaling; Climate change
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147578
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, United States; Department of Geography, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN 47405, United States; Climate Change Research Center, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hamlet A.F.,Byun K.,Robeson S.M.,et al. Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling[J],2019.
APA	Hamlet A.F.,Byun K.,Robeson S.M.,Widhalm M.,&Baldwin M..(2019).Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling.Climatic Change.
MLA	Hamlet A.F.,et al."Impacts of climate change on the state of Indiana: ensemble future projections based on statistical downscaling".Climatic Change (2019).