气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2337-5
	Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment
	Fraga H.; Pinto J.G.; Santos J.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	179
结束页码	193
卷号	152 期号:1
英文摘要	Air temperatures play a major role on temperate fruit development, and the projected future warming may thereby bring additional threats. The present study aims at analyzing the impacts of climate change on chilling and heat forcing on European vineyards and olive (V&O) orchards. Chilling portions (CP) and growing degree hours (GDH) were computed yearly for the recent past (1989–2005) and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios (2021–2080), using several regional-global climate models, also considering model uncertainties and biases. Additionally, minimum CP and GDH values found in 90% of all years were also computed. These metrics were then extracted to the current location of V&O in Europe, and CP-GDH delimitations were assessed. For recent past, high CP values are found in north-central European regions, while lower values tend to exist on opposite sides of Europe. Regarding forcing, southern European regions currently show the highest GDH values. Future projections point to an increased warming, particularly under RCP8.5 and for 2041 onwards. A lower/higher CP is projected for south-western/eastern Europe, while most of Europe is projected to have higher GDH. Northern-central European V&O orchards should still have future CP-GDH similar to present values, while most of southern European orchards are expected to have much lower CP and higher GDH, especially under RCP8.5. These changes may bring limitations to some of the world most important V&O producers, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical for the future sustainability of the European V&O sectors. © 2018, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Orchards; Uncertainty analysis; Air temperature; Climate change projections; European regions; Fruit development; Future projections; Global climate model; Model uncertainties; Olive orchards; Climate change; air temperature; assessment method; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; climate prediction; evergreen tree; freezing; heating; model; orchard; sustainability; vineyard; Europe; Italy; Portugal; Spain
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147542
作者单位	Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), Vila Real, 5000-801, Portugal; Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fraga H.,Pinto J.G.,Santos J.A.. Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment[J],2019,152(1).
APA	Fraga H.,Pinto J.G.,&Santos J.A..(2019).Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment.Climatic Change,152(1).
MLA	Fraga H.,et al."Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment".Climatic Change 152.1(2019).