气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-018-2348-2
	Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest
	Ahmadalipour A.; Moradkhani H.; Kumar M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	569
结束页码	579
卷号	152 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Anthropogenic climate warming has increased the likelihood of extreme hot summers. To facilitate mitigation and adaptation planning, it is essential to quantify and synthesize climate change impacts and characterize the associated uncertainties. By synergistically using projections of climate scenarios from an ensemble of regional climate models and a spatially explicit version of an empirical health risk model, here we quantify the mortality risk associated with excessive heat stress for people aged over 65 years old across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Our results show that mortality risk is expected to intensify by a factor of 8–20 in the last 30 years of the twenty-first century with respect to the historical period (1951–2005) if no climate change mitigation planning is undertaken. If global warming is limited to 2 °C, the mortality risk is expected to rise by a factor of 3–7 for the same period. Further analyses reveal that much of the increase in mortality risk is due to the increase in frequency of warm days rather than their intensity. Unfortunately, the poorest countries with least contribution to climate change are expected to be most impacted by it, as they will experience higher mortality risks compared to wealthier nations. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Developing countries; Global warming; Health risks; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Thermal stress; Anthropogenic climate; Climate change impact; Climate change mitigation; Historical periods; Middle East and North Africa; Poorest countries; Regional climate models; Spatially explicit; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; global warming; health risk; historical perspective; low income population; mortality risk; regional climate; Middle East; North Africa
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147501
作者单位	Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research, Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ahmadalipour A.,Moradkhani H.,Kumar M.. Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest[J],2019,152(2020-03-04).
APA	Ahmadalipour A.,Moradkhani H.,&Kumar M..(2019).Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest.Climatic Change,152(2020-03-04).
MLA	Ahmadalipour A.,et al."Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest".Climatic Change 152.2020-03-04(2019).