气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02400-1
	Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice
	Ji X.; Gronewold A.D.; Daher H.; Rood R.B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	125
结束页码	141
卷号	154 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	To support regional management planning decisions, and to protect human health and safety, we developed a new statistical model that simulates the onset of seasonal ice cover along the shoreline of a US National Park (the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, or APIS). Our model encodes relationships between different modes of climate variability and regional ice cover from 1972 to 2015, and successfully simulates both the timing of ice onset and the probability that ice cover might form at all in a particular winter season. We simulate both of these endpoints using a novel combination of statistical hazard (or survival) and beta regression models. Our analysis of coastal ice cover along the APIS reinforces findings from previous research suggesting that the late 1990s signified a regime shift in climate conditions across North America. Before this period, coastal ice cover conditions at the APIS were often suitable for pedestrian access, while after this period coastal ice cover at the APIS has been highly variable. Our new model accommodates this regime shift, and provides a stepping stone towards a broad range of applications of similar models for supporting regional management decisions in light of evolving climate conditions. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climate variability; Coastal ice; Decision-making; Statistical model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Climatology; Decision making; Regression analysis; Climate condition; Climate variability; National parks; Regional management; Regression model; Statistical modeling; Stepping stone; Winter seasons; Ice
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147477
作者单位	University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ji X.,Gronewold A.D.,Daher H.,et al. Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice[J],2019,154(2020-01-02).
APA	Ji X.,Gronewold A.D.,Daher H.,&Rood R.B..(2019).Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice.Climatic Change,154(2020-01-02).
MLA	Ji X.,et al."Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice".Climatic Change 154.2020-01-02(2019).