气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02420-x
	Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?
	Nunez S.; Arets E.; Alkemade R.; Verwer C.; Leemans R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	351
结束页码	365
卷号	154 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Large changes in biodiversity are expected to occur if climate change continues at its current pace. Adverse effects include changes in species habitats and compositions, and consequently changes in ecosystem functioning. We assessed the magnitude of expected changes of biodiversity by performing a meta-analysis of the responses of species distributions to climate change. We focused on the proportion of local remaining species and their habitats. We summarized 97 studies and calculated two effect-size metrics from their results to quantify changes in biodiversity. These metrics are the fraction of remaining species (FRS) and the fraction of remaining area (FRA) with suitable climate for each species. Both metrics calculate deviations from the original biodiversity state and together they indicate biodiversity intactness. We found an expected gradual decrease in both FRS and FRA with significant reductions of 14% and 35% between 1 and 2 °C increase in global mean temperatures. Strong impacts are projected for both mammals and plants with FRS reductions of 19%. The climate-change response of biodiversity varies strongly among taxonomic groups and biomes. For some taxonomic groups the FRA declines strongly beyond 3 °C of temperature increase. Although these estimates are conservative, as we assume that species are unable to disperse or adapt, we conclude that already at moderate levels (i.e., 1–2 °C) of temperature increase a significant decrease of original biodiversity is projected. Our research supports the pledge to limit climate change to 1.5 °C and preferably lower to protect biodiversity. © 2019, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biodiversity; Ecosystems; Mammals; Adverse effect; Ecosystem functioning; Global-mean temperature; Meta analysis; Research support; Species distributions; Taxonomic groups; Temperature increase; Climate change; assessment method; biodiversity; biome; climate change; conservation status; ecosystem function; habitat type; temperature effect; Mammalia
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147456
作者单位	Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research, PO Box 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, Netherlands; Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, PO Box 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, Netherlands; PBL-Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, The Hague, 2500 GH, Netherlands; IUCN National Committee of The Netherlands, Plantage Middenlaan 2K, Amsterdam, 1018 DD, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nunez S.,Arets E.,Alkemade R.,et al. Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?[J],2019,154(2020-03-04).
APA	Nunez S.,Arets E.,Alkemade R.,Verwer C.,&Leemans R..(2019).Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?.Climatic Change,154(2020-03-04).
MLA	Nunez S.,et al."Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?".Climatic Change 154.2020-03-04(2019).