气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change impacts on the global potential geographical distribution of the agricultural invasive pest; Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02460-3
	Climate change impacts on the global potential geographical distribution of the agricultural invasive pest; Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae)
	Qin Y.; Wang C.; Zhao Z.; Pan X.; Li Z.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	145
结束页码	156
卷号	155 期号:2
英文摘要	Climate change is a major factor driving shifts in the distribution of invasive pests. The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis, native to mainland Asia, has spread throughout Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, the species has extended its Asian range northward into regions previously thought unsuitable which presents a major new risk to temperate zone agriculture and has invaded Italy. Thus, it is necessary to study how climate change may impact on the global distribution of B. dorsalis. MaxEnt models were used to map suitable habitat for this species under current and future climate conditions averaged from four global climate models under two representative emission pathways in 2050 and 2070. The results highlighted that a total of 30.84% of the world’s land mass is currently climatically suitable including parts of the western coast and southeast of the USA, most of Latin America, parts of Mediterranean coastal European regions, northern and coastal Australia, and the north island of New Zealand. Under future climate conditions, the risk area of B. dorsalis in the northern hemisphere was projected to expand northward, while in the southern hemisphere, it would be southward, especially by 2070 under RCP85 with very high greenhouse gas emissions. Future management of this pest should consider the impacts of the global climate change on its potential geographical distribution. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Climate models; Gas emissions; Geographical distribution; Greenhouse gases; Climate change impact; European regions; Global climate changes; Global climate model; Global distribution; Northern Hemispheres; Southern Hemisphere; Sub-saharan africa; Climate change; climate change; climate conditions; climate effect; fly; geographical distribution; global change; invasive species; native species; Northern Hemisphere; range expansion; Southern Hemisphere; spatial distribution; Asia; Australia; Europe; Italy; Latin America; New Zealand; Southeast Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; United States; Bactrocera dorsalis; Diptera; Tephritidae
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147440
作者单位	Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China; College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China; Chinese Academy of Inspection and Quarantine, Beijing, 100176, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qin Y.,Wang C.,Zhao Z.,et al. Climate change impacts on the global potential geographical distribution of the agricultural invasive pest; Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae)[J],2019,155(2).
APA	Qin Y.,Wang C.,Zhao Z.,Pan X.,&Li Z..(2019).Climate change impacts on the global potential geographical distribution of the agricultural invasive pest; Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae).Climatic Change,155(2).
MLA	Qin Y.,et al."Climate change impacts on the global potential geographical distribution of the agricultural invasive pest; Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae)".Climatic Change 155.2(2019).