气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02500-y
	Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment
	Ho E.; Budescu D.V.; Bosetti V.; van Vuuren D.P.; Keller K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	545
结束页码	561
卷号	155 期号:4
英文摘要	Climate researchers use carbon dioxide emission scenarios to explore alternative climate futures and potential impacts, as well as implications of mitigation and adaptation policies. Often, these scenarios are published without formal probabilistic interpretations, given the deep uncertainty related to future development. However, users often seek such information, a likely range or relative probabilities. Without further specifications, users sometimes pick a small subset of emission scenarios and/or assume that all scenarios are equally likely. Here, we present probabilistic judgments of experts assessing the distribution of 2100 emissions under a business-as-usual and a policy scenario. We obtain the judgments through a method that relies only on pairwise comparisons of various ranges of emissions. There is wide variability between individual experts, but they clearly do not assign equal probabilities for the total range of future emissions. We contrast these judgments with the emission projection ranges derived from the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and a recent multi-model comparison producing probabilistic emission scenarios. Differences on long-term emission probabilities between expert estimates and model-based calculations may result from various factors including model restrictions, a coverage of a wider set of factors by experts, but also group think and inability to appreciate long-term processes. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Global warming; Adaptation policies; Carbon dioxide emissions; Emission probabilities; Emission projections; Pair-wise comparison; Probabilistic interpretation; Probabilistic judgments; Relative probability; Probability distributions; adaptation; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; long-term change; socioeconomic status
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147429
作者单位	Fordham University, The Bronx, NY, United States; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ho E.,Budescu D.V.,Bosetti V.,et al. Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment[J],2019,155(4).
APA	Ho E.,Budescu D.V.,Bosetti V.,van Vuuren D.P.,&Keller K..(2019).Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment.Climatic Change,155(4).
MLA	Ho E.,et al."Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment".Climatic Change 155.4(2019).