气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function in a mountain watershed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02524-4
	Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function in a mountain watershed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
	Zhou D.; Hao L.; Kim J.B.; Liu P.; Pan C.; Liu Y.; Sun G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	31
结束页码	50
卷号	156 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau constitutes unique mountain ecosystems that can be used for early detection of the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functions. We use the MAPSS-CENTURY 2 (MC2), a dynamic global vegetation model, to examine the potential responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in the past (1961–2010) and future (2011–2080) under one medium-low warming scenario (RCP4.5) at a 1-km spatial resolution in the Upper Heihe River Basin (UHRB), northwestern China. Results showed that 21.4% of the watershed area has experienced changes in potential natural vegetation types in the past and that 42.6% of the land would undergo changes by the 2070s, characterized by a sharp increase in alpine tundra at the cost of cold barren land. Net primary productivity (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (RH) have increased sharply since the mid-1980s and are projected to remain at reduced rates in the future. Overall, UHRB switched from carbon neutral to a carbon sink in 1961–2010, and the sink strength is projected to decline after 2040. Additionally, future climate change is projected to drive a decrease in water yield due to a slight decrease in precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration (ET). Furthermore, we find large spatial variations in simulated ecosystem dynamics, including an upward trend of NPP, RH, and ET in the alpine zone, but a downward trend in the mid-elevation forest zone. These results underscore the complexity of potential impacts of climate change on mountain watersheds that represent the headwaters of inland river systems in an arid environment. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon; Climate models; Ecosystems; Landforms; Vegetation; Watersheds; Ecosystem functions; Heterotrophic respiration; Mountain ecosystems; Net primary productivity; Potential response; Qinghai Tibet plateau; Terrestrial ecosystems; Vegetation dynamics; Climate change; carbon sequestration; carbon sink; climate change; climate effect; ecosystem function; evapotranspiration; mountain environment; net primary production; tundra; vegetation dynamics; watershed; China; Gansu; Heihe Basin; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147412
作者单位	Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States; Centers for Forest Disturbance Science, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Athens, GA 30602, United States; Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou D.,Hao L.,Kim J.B.,et al. Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function in a mountain watershed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J],2019,156(2020-01-02).
APA	Zhou D..,Hao L..,Kim J.B..,Liu P..,Pan C..,...&Sun G..(2019).Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function in a mountain watershed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Climatic Change,156(2020-01-02).
MLA	Zhou D.,et al."Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function in a mountain watershed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau".Climatic Change 156.2020-01-02(2019).