气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change increases potential plant species richness on Puerto Rican uplands

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02491-w
	Climate change increases potential plant species richness on Puerto Rican uplands
	Henareh Khalyani A.; Gould W.A.; Falkowski M.J.; Muscarella R.; Uriarte M.; Yousef F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	15
结束页码	30
卷号	156 期号:2020-01-02
英文摘要	Modeling climate change effects on species and communities is critical especially in isolated islands. We analyzed the potential effects of climate change on 200 plant species in Puerto Rico under two emission scenarios and in four periods over the twenty-first century. Our approach was based on ensemble bioclimatic modeling using eight modeling algorithms and community richness analysis. Our findings showed that the probabilities of environmental suitability decline for wet climate species and increase for drier and warm climate species in the future periods under both emission scenarios, with stronger effects under the higher emission scenario. Expansion of dry climate species to higher elevations appears to be a prominent response of species to climatic change in the island based on changes in environmental suitability but the actual species redistribution will be influenced by their life histories, potential adaptation, dispersal abilities, species introductions, and species interactions. This potential movement leads to a spatial pattern of species richness at site level that shows a positive relationship with elevation, which becomes stronger in the later periods of the century. The spatial pattern of species richness, if combined with single species projections, can provide critical information for conservation management in the island. Conservation management can support island-wide biological diversity by protecting the wet climate species on the uplands. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Conservation; Bioclimatic models; Climatic changes; Conservation management; Emission scenario; Plant species richness; Potential effects; Species interactions; Species introductions; Climate change; algorithm; bioclimatology; biodiversity; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; conservation management; dispersal; plant community; species richness; twenty first century; upland region; Puerto Rico
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147407
作者单位	Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, 1499 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; International Institute of Tropical Forestry, USDA Forest Service, San Juan, PR, United States; Department of Bioscience - Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark; Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Foad Yousef, Department of Biology, Westminster College, Salt Lake City, UT, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Henareh Khalyani A.,Gould W.A.,Falkowski M.J.,et al. Climate change increases potential plant species richness on Puerto Rican uplands[J],2019,156(2020-01-02).
APA	Henareh Khalyani A.,Gould W.A.,Falkowski M.J.,Muscarella R.,Uriarte M.,&Yousef F..(2019).Climate change increases potential plant species richness on Puerto Rican uplands.Climatic Change,156(2020-01-02).
MLA	Henareh Khalyani A.,et al."Climate change increases potential plant species richness on Puerto Rican uplands".Climatic Change 156.2020-01-02(2019).