气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling the sensitivity of wheat yield and yield gap to temperature change with two contrasting methods in the North China Plain

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02526-2
	Modeling the sensitivity of wheat yield and yield gap to temperature change with two contrasting methods in the North China Plain
	Bai H.; Wang J.; Fang Q.; Yin H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	589
结束页码	607
卷号	156 期号:4
英文摘要	Wheat productivity in the North China Plain (NCP) is highly sensitive to climate change and varies greatly in spatial-temporal scale. Contrasting responses of wheat productivity to climate change were reported with different assessment methods. In this study, the impacts of climate warming (+ 2 °C) on wheat yields and yield gaps in the NCP were compared under rainfed, irrigated, and potential conditions using climatic resource utilization model (CRUM) and APSIM. Average potential yield increased 289 kg ha−1 per decade (P < 0.01) simulated by CRUM but decreased 219 kg ha−1 per decade (P < 0.01) simulated by APSIM across the NCP during 1961–2010. Under the + 2 °C scenario compared with current climate (1961–2010), wheat yields under potential, two irrigations, one irrigation, and rainfed conditions increased 27%, 23%, 28%, and 13% simulated by CRUM but decreased 7%, 8%, 10%, and 17% simulated by APSIM. Simulated yield gaps between potential yield and yields under rainfed and one and two irrigations by CRUM increased 33%, 27%, and 32%, respectively. Simulated yield gap between potential and rainfed yields by APSIM increased 9% while the gaps between potential yield and yields under one and two irrigations by APSIM decreased 12% and 10%. Without cultivar change, simulated shortened growth period by APSIM due to increased temperature would decrease wheat yields. By contrast, increased temperature under a constant growth period assumed by CRUM would increase yields especially potential yield. This suggested that wheat yields could be maintained by effective utilization of crop growth duration, such as breeding new cultivars under warming climate in the NCP. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Irrigation; Plants (botany); Productivity; Average potential; Increased temperature; North China Plain; Potential conditions; Rainfed condition; Resource utilizations; Spatial temporals; Temperature changes; Climate change; agricultural modeling; climate change; crop yield; cultivar; growth; irrigation system; plant breeding; rainfed agriculture; simulation; temperature; wheat; China; Triticum aestivum
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147395
作者单位	College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China; Agronomy College, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao, 266109, China; Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, 712100, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bai H.,Wang J.,Fang Q.,et al. Modeling the sensitivity of wheat yield and yield gap to temperature change with two contrasting methods in the North China Plain[J],2019,156(4).
APA	Bai H.,Wang J.,Fang Q.,&Yin H..(2019).Modeling the sensitivity of wheat yield and yield gap to temperature change with two contrasting methods in the North China Plain.Climatic Change,156(4).
MLA	Bai H.,et al."Modeling the sensitivity of wheat yield and yield gap to temperature change with two contrasting methods in the North China Plain".Climatic Change 156.4(2019).