气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of future urban scenarios on a severe weather case in the metropolitan area of São Paulo

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02527-1
	The impact of future urban scenarios on a severe weather case in the metropolitan area of São Paulo
	Bender A.; Freitas E.D.; Machado L.A.T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	471
结束页码	488
卷号	156 期号:4
英文摘要	In this work, convective parameters are applied, based on numerical simulations made with Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) model, to a severe weather case which occurred in the metropolitan area of São Paulo (MASP). Scenarios of future urban area growth and increase of building heights were made to evaluate changes in convective parameters and rainfall for the study region. Using factorial planning and factor separation methods, we found that the urban area growth predicted for 2030 is capable of increasing the amount of precipitation, mainly due to the land use change from rural to urban. In the scenario of building heights increasing, it was found a tendency for rainfall suppression. The urban area for 2030 is the major factor contributing to increasing atmospheric instability and wind shear. Vertical urban growth causes an increase in atmospheric instability and a decrease in wind shear. The interaction between urban area and building height factors increases the amount of precipitation and storm motion over the MASP. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Land use; Rain; Building height; Convective parameters; Land-use change; Metropolitan area; Regional atmospheric modeling systems; Separation methods; Severe weather; Urban scenarios; Urban growth; climate effect; climate modeling; extreme event; future prospect; land use change; metropolitan area; nature-society relations; severe weather; urban growth; wind shear; Brazil; Sao Paulo [Brazil]
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147394
作者单位	Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, 05508-090, Brazil; Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Rodovia Presidente Dutra, km 40, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo 12630-000, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bender A.,Freitas E.D.,Machado L.A.T.. The impact of future urban scenarios on a severe weather case in the metropolitan area of São Paulo[J],2019,156(4).
APA	Bender A.,Freitas E.D.,&Machado L.A.T..(2019).The impact of future urban scenarios on a severe weather case in the metropolitan area of São Paulo.Climatic Change,156(4).
MLA	Bender A.,et al."The impact of future urban scenarios on a severe weather case in the metropolitan area of São Paulo".Climatic Change 156.4(2019).