气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02512-8
	Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change
	Ross A.C.; Najjar R.G.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	407
结束页码	428
卷号	157 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	A challenge for climate impact studies is the selection of a limited number of climate model projections among the dozens that are typically available. Here, we examine the impacts of methods for climate model selection on projections of runoff change for five different watersheds across the conterminous USA. The results from an ensemble of 29 global climate models and 29 corresponding hydrological model simulations are compared with the results that would have been obtained by applying six different selection methods to the climate model data and using only the selected models to drive the hydrological model. We evaluate each selection method based on whether the runoff projections produced by the method meet the method’s objective and on whether the results are sensitive to the number of models chosen. The Katsavounidis–Kuo–Zhang (KKZ) method, which is intended to maximize the spread in the projected climate change, was the only method that met both criteria for suitability. Although the KKZ method generally performed well, the results from both it and the other methods varied somewhat unpredictably based on region and number of models chosen. This study shows that the methods and models used in similar top–down studies should be carefully chosen and that the results obtained should be interpreted with caution. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climate model ensembles; Hydrological change; Model selection; Model uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Digital storage; Hydrology; Runoff; Uncertainty analysis; Evaluation of methods; Global climate model; Hydrological changes; Hydrological modeling; Model ensembles; Model Selection; Model uncertainties; Runoff projections; Climate models; climate effect; climate modeling; comparative study; hydrological change; hydrological regime; runoff; watershed; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147358
作者单位	Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania, University Park, PA, United States; Princeton University Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ross A.C.,Najjar R.G.. Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change[J],2019,157(2020-03-04).
APA	Ross A.C.,&Najjar R.G..(2019).Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change.Climatic Change,157(2020-03-04).
MLA	Ross A.C.,et al."Evaluation of methods for selecting climate models to simulate future hydrological change".Climatic Change 157.2020-03-04(2019).