气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02570-y
	Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change
	Pfleiderer P.; Menke I.; Schleussner C.-F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	515
结束页码	525
卷号	157 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Anthropogenic climate change is affecting agriculture and crop production. The responses of horticultural and agricultural systems to changing climatic conditions can be non-linear and at times counter-intuitive. Depending on the characteristics of the system, the actual impact can arise as a result of a combination of climate hazards or compound events. Here, we show that compound events can lead to increased risk of frost damage for apple fruit trees in Germany in a 2 °C warmer world of up to 10% relative to present day. Although the absolute number of frost days is declining, warmer winters also lead to earlier blossom of fruit trees, which in turn can lead to regionally dependent increased risks of the occurrence of frost days after apple blossom. In southern Germany, warmer winters may also lead to an increase in years in which apple yield is negatively affected by a lack of sufficient amount of cold days to trigger the seasonal response of the trees. Our results show how cropping system responses to seasonal climate can lead to unexpected effects of increased risk of frost damage as a result of warmer winters. An improved understanding of ecosystem responses to changes in climate signals is important to fully assess the impacts of climate change. © 2019, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Apple tree; Climate change; Compound weather events; Weather extremes
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Cultivation; Forestry; Frost effects; Fruits; Orchards; Agricultural system; Anthropogenic climate changes; Apple trees; Climatic conditions; Ecosystem response; Southern Germany; Weather events; Weather extremes; Climate change; Malus x domestica
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147356
作者单位	Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; IRI THESys, Humboldt Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pfleiderer P.,Menke I.,Schleussner C.-F.. Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change[J],2019,157(2020-03-04).
APA	Pfleiderer P.,Menke I.,&Schleussner C.-F..(2019).Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change.Climatic Change,157(2020-03-04).
MLA	Pfleiderer P.,et al."Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change".Climatic Change 157.2020-03-04(2019).