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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02579-3
	When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems
	Shi R.; Hobbs B.F.; Jiang H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	611
结束页码	630
卷号	157 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Climate adaptation decisions are difficult because the future climate is deeply uncertain. Combined with uncertainties concerning the cost, lifetime, and effectiveness of adaptation measures, this implies that the net benefits of alternative adaptation strategies are ambiguous. On one hand, a simple analysis that disregards uncertainty might lead to near-term choices that are later regretted if future circumstances differ from those assumed. On the other hand, careful uncertainty-based decision analyses can be costly in personnel and time and might not make a difference. This paper considers two questions adaptation managers might ask. First, what type of analysis is most appropriate for a particular adaptation decision? We answer this question by proposing a six-step screening procedure to compare the usefulness of predict-then-act analysis, multi-scenario analysis without adaptive options, and multi-scenario analysis incorporating adaptive options. A tutorial application is presented using decision trees. However, this procedure may be cumbersome if managers face several adaptation problems simultaneously. Hence, a second question is how can managers quickly identify problems that would benefit most from thorough decision analysis? To address this question, we propose a procedure that ranks multiple adaptation problems in terms of the necessity and value of comprehensive analysis. Analysis can then emphasize the highest-ranking problems. This procedure is illustrated by a ranking of adaptation problems in the Chesapeake Bay region. The two complementary procedures proposed here can help managers focus analytical efforts where they will be most useful. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Chesapeake Bay; Climate change adaptation; Climate uncertainty; Cost-benefit analysis; Type of decision analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Decision making; Decision theory; Decision trees; Managers; Uncertainty analysis; Adaptation decisions; Adaptation strategies; Chesapeake Bay; Climate change adaptation; Climate uncertainty; Comprehensive analysis; Multiple adaptation; Screening procedures; Cost benefit analysis; adaptive management; climate change; cost-benefit analysis; decision making; questionnaire survey; ranking; Chesapeake Bay; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147355
作者单位	Department of Environmental Health & Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD, United States; Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 44 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shi R.,Hobbs B.F.,Jiang H.. When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems[J],2019,157(2020-03-04).
APA	Shi R.,Hobbs B.F.,&Jiang H..(2019).When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems.Climatic Change,157(2020-03-04).
MLA	Shi R.,et al."When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems".Climatic Change 157.2020-03-04(2019).