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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3
	Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis
	Smith S.J.; Chateau J.; Dorheim K.; Drouet L.; Durand-Lasserve O.; Fricko O.; Fujimori S.; Hanaoka T.; Harmsen M.; Hilaire J.; Keramidas K.; Klimont Z.; Luderer G.; Moura M.C.P.; Riahi K.; Rogelj J.; Sano F.; van Vuuren D.P.; Wada K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
英文摘要	The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. © 2020, Battelle Memorial Institute.
英文关键词	Air pollution; Black carbon; Climate change; Methane; Radiative forcing
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147302
作者单位	Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, United States; OECD Environment Directorate, 2 rue André Pascal, Paris, 75116, France; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Via Bergogne 34, Milan, 20144, Italy; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz-1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, C1-3-361, Katsura-Campus, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto City, 615-8540, Japan; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, 2594 AV, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, Utrecht, 3584 CB, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute for...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith S.J.,Chateau J.,Dorheim K.,et al. Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis[J],2020.
APA	Smith S.J..,Chateau J..,Dorheim K..,Drouet L..,Durand-Lasserve O..,...&Wada K..(2020).Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis.Climatic Change.
MLA	Smith S.J.,et al."Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis".Climatic Change (2020).