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| DOI | 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4 |
| Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources | |
| Dankers R.; Kundzewicz Z.W. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0165-0009 |
| 英文摘要 | This paper reviews the sources of uncertainty in physical climate impact assessments. It draws on examples from related fields such as climate modelling and numerical weather prediction in discussing how to interpret the results of multi-model ensembles and the role of model evaluation. Using large-scale, multi-model simulations of hydrological extremes as an example, we demonstrate how large uncertainty at the local scale does not preclude more robust conclusions at the global scale. Finally, some recommendations are made: climate impact studies should be clear about the questions they want to address, transparent about the uncertainties involved, and honest about the assumptions being made. © 2020, The Author(s). |
| 英文关键词 | Multi-model ensembles; Physical climate impact projections; Uncertainty |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | Water resources; Weather forecasting; Climate impact assessment; Climate impacts; Hydrological extremes; Model evaluation; Multi-model ensemble; Multi-Model Simulations; Numerical weather prediction; Sources of uncertainty; Climate models |
| 来源期刊 | Climatic Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147286 |
| 作者单位 | Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, Postbus 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, Netherlands; Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, Poznan, 60-809, Poland |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dankers R.,Kundzewicz Z.W.. Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources[J],2020. |
| APA | Dankers R.,&Kundzewicz Z.W..(2020).Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources.Climatic Change. |
| MLA | Dankers R.,et al."Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources".Climatic Change (2020). |
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