气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Integrating climate prediction and regionalization into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural planning

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02559-7
	Integrating climate prediction and regionalization into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural planning
	Zhang Y.; You L.; Lee D.; Block P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	435
结束页码	451
卷号	158 期号:2020-03-04
英文摘要	Advanced skill in seasonal climate prediction coupled with sectoral decision models can provide decision makers with opportunities to benefit or reduce unnecessary losses. Such approaches are particularly beneficial to rainfed agriculture, the livelihood choice for the majority of the world’s poor population, for which yields are highly sensitive to climate conditions. However, a notable gap still exists between scientific communities producing predictions and the end users who may actually realize the benefits. In this study, an interdisciplinary approach connecting climate prediction to agricultural planning is adopted to address this gap. An ex ante evaluation of seasonal precipitation prediction is assessed using an agro-economic equilibrium model to simulate Ethiopia’s national economy, accounting for interannual climate variability and prediction-guided agricultural responses. Given the high spatial variability in Ethiopian precipitation, delineation of homogeneous climatic regions (i.e., regionalization) is also considered in addition to growing season precipitation prediction. The model provides perspectives across various economic indices (e.g., gross domestic product, calorie consumption, and poverty rate) at aggregated (national) and disaggregated (zonal) scales. Model results illustrate the key influence of climate on the Ethiopian economy, and prospects for positive net benefits under a prediction-guided agricultural planning (e.g., reallocation of crop types) strategy, as compared with static business-as-usual agricultural practices. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Climatology; Decision making; Economics; Forecasting; Agricultural planning; Agricultural practices; Gross domestic products; Interannual climate variability; Rain fed agriculture; Scientific community; Seasonal climate prediction; Seasonal precipitations; Climate models; agricultural economics; agricultural ecosystem; agricultural management; agrometeorology; climate prediction; economic planning; growing season; interdisciplinary approach; rainfed agriculture; regionalization; Ethiopia
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147249
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N Charles St., Latrobe Hall 205, Baltimore, MD 21218, United States; Division of Environment and Production Technology, International Food Policy Research Institute, 1201 Eye Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005, United States; Macro Agriculture Research Institute, College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering Dr., Madison, WI 53706, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Y.,You L.,Lee D.,et al. Integrating climate prediction and regionalization into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural planning[J],2020,158(2020-03-04).
APA	Zhang Y.,You L.,Lee D.,&Block P..(2020).Integrating climate prediction and regionalization into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural planning.Climatic Change,158(2020-03-04).
MLA	Zhang Y.,et al."Integrating climate prediction and regionalization into an agro-economic model to guide agricultural planning".Climatic Change 158.2020-03-04(2020).