气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02649-6
	The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change
	Cook L.M.; McGinnis S.; Samaras C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	289
结束页码	308
卷号	159 期号:2
英文摘要	Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, commonly used in stormwater infrastructure design to represent characteristics of extreme rainfall, are gradually being updated to reflect expected changes in rainfall under climate change. The modeling choices used for updating lead to large uncertainties; however, it is unclear how much these uncertainties affect the design and cost of stormwater systems. This study investigates how the choice of spatial resolution of the regional climate model (RCM) ensemble and the spatial adjustment technique affect climate-corrected IDF curves and resulting stormwater infrastructure designs in 34 US cities for the period 2020 to 2099. In most cities, IDF values are significantly different between three spatial adjustment techniques and two RCM spatial resolutions. These differences have the potential to alter the size of stormwater systems designed using these choices and affect the results of climate impact modeling more broadly. The largest change in the engineering decision results when the design storm is selected from the upper bounds of the uncertainty distribution of the IDF curve, which changes the stormwater pipe design size by five increments in some cases, nearly doubling the cost. State and local agencies can help reduce some of this variability by setting guidelines, such as avoiding the use of the upper bound of the future uncertainty range as a design storm and instead accounting for uncertainty by tracking infrastructure performance over time and preparing for adaptation using a resilience plan. © 2020, The Author(s).
英文关键词	Extreme value distribution; Intensity-duration-frequency curves; MOS techniques; Regional climate models; Stormwater design; Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Cost engineering; Rain; Storms; Uncertainty analysis; Extreme value distributions; Intensity-duration-frequency curves; Regional climate models; Stormwater design; Uncertainty; Climate change; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; detection method; rainfall; regional climate; stormwater; uncertainty analysis; United States
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147227
作者单位	Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States; Department of Urban Water Management, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cook L.M.,McGinnis S.,Samaras C.. The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change[J],2020,159(2).
APA	Cook L.M.,McGinnis S.,&Samaras C..(2020).The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change.Climatic Change,159(2).
MLA	Cook L.M.,et al."The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change".Climatic Change 159.2(2020).