气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Secular temperature variations and the spatial disparities of war in historical China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-019-02652-x
	Secular temperature variations and the spatial disparities of war in historical China
	Zhang S.; Zhang D.D.; Li J.; Pei Q.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	545
结束页码	564
卷号	159 期号:4
英文摘要	Studies about climate change and the variation of the spatial pattern of war are extremely scarce in academia at present. Therefore, the temperature series and battle coordinates in imperial China from AD 5 to 1911 are integrated in this research, and their long-term quantitative relationship is examined by employing mathematical statistics such as one-way ANOVA, as well as the spatial analytical tool, standard deviational ellipse (SDE) in ArcGIS. Meanwhile, the temperature sequence is divided into three multicentennial warm–cold cycles, which are combined with different types of war (all war, agri-nomadic conflict, and rebellion) to reveal the spatial disparity of war under the influence of secular and periodic temperature change. Results show that (1) battle longitude and battle latitude are significantly different between warm and cold phases. (2) SDEs stretch toward the north/west/northwest in warm intervals but retreat south-/east-/southeastward in cold stages. (3) SDEs generally shift southeastward over time, and the variation of latitude is more evident than that of longitude, which corresponds to the overall cooling trend throughout the past 2000 years. Based on these research findings, we conclude that temperature fundamentally regulates the spatial difference of war in imperial China via controlling agricultural and pastoral productivity. This innovative study provides a robust climatological explanation of the historical conundrum why wars in ancient China distribute with specific directions, and it also lays a foundation for spatiotemporal investigations of climate change and human responses at long-term scales in the future. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Historical China; One-way ANOVA; Spatial disparity of war; Standard deviational ellipse; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Analysis of variance (ANOVA); Statistics; Temperature; Historical China; One-way anova; Spatial differences; Spatial disparity of war; Standard Deviational Ellipse; Temperature changes; Temperature series; Temperature variation; Climate change; anthropogenic effect; ArcGIS; climate change; climatology; cooling; seasonal variation; spatial variation; spatiotemporal analysis; temperature gradient; China
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147211
作者单位	School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China; Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Social Sciences, The Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang S.,Zhang D.D.,Li J.,et al. Secular temperature variations and the spatial disparities of war in historical China[J],2020,159(4).
APA	Zhang S.,Zhang D.D.,Li J.,&Pei Q..(2020).Secular temperature variations and the spatial disparities of war in historical China.Climatic Change,159(4).
MLA	Zhang S.,et al."Secular temperature variations and the spatial disparities of war in historical China".Climatic Change 159.4(2020).