气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02667-9
	Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections
	Brêda J.P.L.F.; de Paiva R.C.D.; Collischon W.; Bravo J.M.; Siqueira V.A.; Steinke E.B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	503
结束页码	522
卷号	159 期号:4
英文摘要	South America contributes to roughly 30% of global runoff to the oceans. Because the regional economy and biodiversity depend significantly on its water resources, assessing potential climate change impacts on the continental water balance is crucial to support water management planning. Here we evaluate the mean alterations of water balance variables and river discharge in South America by the end of this century using two different GHG scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). An ensemble comprising 25 global climate models (GCM) from CMIP5 is used to force a continental-scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic model developed for that region. A negative signal with respect to changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff is observed on most of the continent. Major decreases in the annual mean discharge are expected for the Orinoco, Tocantins, and Amazon basins, which would be around 8–14% at least (statistically significant – RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). Only the Uruguay Basin presents a positive trend for the mean discharge. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; Impacts; South America; Water resources
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biodiversity; Climate models; Greenhouse gases; Regional planning; Runoff; Water management; Water resources; Climate change impact; Continental waters; Global climate model; Hydrodynamic model; Hydrological modeling; Impacts; Management planning; South America; Climate change; biodiversity; climate change; CMIP; global climate; regional economy; river discharge; runoff; water budget; water management; Brazil; Orinoco River; Tocantins; Uruguay Basin
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147209
作者单位	Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade do Rio Grande do Sul, 9500, Bento Gonçalves Avenue, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brêda J.P.L.F.,de Paiva R.C.D.,Collischon W.,et al. Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections[J],2020,159(4).
APA	Brêda J.P.L.F.,de Paiva R.C.D.,Collischon W.,Bravo J.M.,Siqueira V.A.,&Steinke E.B..(2020).Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections.Climatic Change,159(4).
MLA	Brêda J.P.L.F.,et al."Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections".Climatic Change 159.4(2020).