气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Has historic climate change affected the spatial distribution of water-limited wheat yield across Western Australia?

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02666-w
	Has historic climate change affected the spatial distribution of water-limited wheat yield across Western Australia?
	Fletcher A.L.; Chen C.; Ota N.; Lawes R.A.; Oliver Y.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0165-0009
起始页码	347
结束页码	364
卷号	159 期号:3
英文摘要	Climate change has likely impacted crop yield potential in major rain-fed crop-growing regions. However, the impact on the spatial pattern across regions is unclear. Here, the wheat belt of Western Australia was used as a case study to investigate the effect of historical climate change on the spatial patterns of water-limited crop yield. We used 117 years (1900–2016) of observed daily climate data on ~ 5 km × ~ 5 km grids to map and quantify the spatial-temporal changes in water-limited wheat yield simulated by the APSIM model. The climate data were split into four periods based on distinct changes in rainfall (Period 1, 1900–1934; Period 2, 1935–1974; Period 3, 1975–1999; and Period 4, 2000–2016). The results showed that the observed decreases in rainfall shifted the regional wheat yield potential towards the southwest of the wheat belt by an average of 70 km between the first and last periods. Observed increases in CO2 counteracted this by about half of this movement. Actual wheat yields achieved by farmers have not decreased, thanks to improvements in crop genetics and management, but the simulated decrease in water-limited yields has meant that actual yields in this region are not as high as they might have been. Future climate change is likely to continue to impact on water-limited crop yield and its spatial pattern in Western Australia. Cropping systems will need to continually evolve to cope with a changing climate, and every aspect of agronomy and genetics needs to be considered. Without continuing improvements, there will likely be a decrease in wheat yield across this cropping region. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
英文关键词	APSIM; Climate change; Water-limited yield; Wheat
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Chromosomes; Climate models; Crops; Cultivation; Rain; APSIM; Changing climate; Cropping systems; Distribution of water; Spatial patterns; Spatial-temporal changes; Western Australia; Wheat; Climate change; agricultural management; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate effect; crop yield; farming system; growing season; historical record; rainfed agriculture; spatiotemporal analysis; wheat; Australia; Triticum aestivum
来源期刊	Climatic Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/147208
作者单位	CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fletcher A.L.,Chen C.,Ota N.,et al. Has historic climate change affected the spatial distribution of water-limited wheat yield across Western Australia?[J],2020,159(3).
APA	Fletcher A.L.,Chen C.,Ota N.,Lawes R.A.,&Oliver Y.M..(2020).Has historic climate change affected the spatial distribution of water-limited wheat yield across Western Australia?.Climatic Change,159(3).
MLA	Fletcher A.L.,et al."Has historic climate change affected the spatial distribution of water-limited wheat yield across Western Australia?".Climatic Change 159.3(2020).